Andrew Abranches, Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Andrew Abranches is the Director of Integrated Planning within Gas Operations at PG&E. He has been with PG&E for ten years serving in leadership roles in Finance, Electric Operations and Human Resources. Prior to PG&E, he has worked at Northrop Grumman and General Electric. The integrated planning function oversees the expenditure of $2.7 billion dollars for the PG&E Gas Operations annual budget. In 2018 the team stood up the Predictive Analytics group with the focus on improving the fidelity of the forecasts for work volumes and unit costs. Key to this effort has been the partnership with Dr. Sam Savage and the SIPmath Group to grow the capabilities within PG&E Gas Operations. Andrew has a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo.
Katlin Bass, Lone Star Analysis
Katlin Bass earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from Tarleton State University. She is an Analyst for Lone Star Analysis, responsible for data analysis, developing model architecture, and managing updates and simulation scenarios of complete models. She has been the model architect for two econometric ensemble projects.
Thomas W. Chesnutt, Ph.D., PStat®, CAP®, A & N Technical Services, Inc.
Dr. Chesnutt is the Founder of A & N Technical Services, Inc. He was a co-principal investigator on the just completed AWE study titled Building Better Water Rates for an Uncertain World (including the AWE Sales Forecasting and Rate Model enacting principles of Probability Management which can be downloaded at financingsustainablewater.org.) He has extensive experience in water rate development, stochastic simulation and demand forecasting. His recent projects include the following: 1) Water Use Efficiency Master Plans for MWD of Orange County, Upper San Gabriel Valley MWD, West Basin MWD, Central Basin MWD, Elsinore Valley MWD, the City of Oxnard, the Santa Clara Valley Water District, the Santa Clarita Valley Family of Water Suppliers, the City of Tucson; 2) Water Efficiency Plans for the three largest water utilities in Jordan (IDARA-lead projects); 3) Co-development of the Water Research Foundation Avoided Cost and Benefit Cost Models for Water Efficiency in Integrated Water Management; 4) Work sponsored by the US Bureau of Reclamation on advancing planning tools for atypical water resource alternatives “Planning Tools Potentially Applicable to Advanced Treatment Technology”; 5) Analysis of Water Demand and Water Rates for the Portland Water Bureau and Tacoma Water; 6) Water Budget-based Rates for the Coachella Valley Water District, Elsinore Valley MWD, Padre Dam MWD, IEUA member agencies, and the Water Research Foundation; and 7) co-leading the Water Research Foundation project “Probability Management for Water Finance and Resource Managers”. Tom has worked both the theoretical and applied sides of water demand forecasting. He developed and taught a graduate course in Water Demand Modeling and Forecasting at Jordan University of Science and Technology and has developed and implemented water demand models for dozens of water utilities.
Dr. Chesnutt holds a Ph.D. and M.Phil. in Policy Analysis from the RAND Graduate School, an M.S. in Technology and Science Policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a B.A. in Economics from Kenyon College. He is a member of the American Water Works Association, the International Water Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Statistical Association, and the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS). Dr. Chesnutt has worked with a wide range of programming and statistical languages including, STATA, R, SAS, SPSS, Gauss, MATA, Frontline Solver, Mathematica, @Risk, CrystalBall, Rats, JCL, Basic, FORTRAN, C++, and recent applications of probability management. Dr. Chesnutt was a co-creator of the VARDEF language for enacting stochastic simulation of water systems. Dr. Chesnutt volunteers for ProbabilityManagement.org, a nonprofit promulgating standards for quantitative depictions of uncertainty—see SIPmath™ v.2 on their website. Dr. Chesnutt is a Certified Analytics Professional (CAP® , see www.certifiedanalytics.org) and an Accredited Professional StatisticianTM (PStat®) .
Raj Dev, Credit Sesame
Raj Dev is an executive whose career spans multiple functions (e.g., finance, strategy, HR) and industries (banking, insurance, FinTech). He’s currently Head of Talent at Credit Sesame, a FinTech start up that created and leads the Personal Credit Management category. He believes that assumptions can be made when the future is uncertain to create decision-making frameworks, even in functions that haven’t traditionally employed quantitative frameworks, like human resources.
Shaun Doheney, Innovative Decisions, Inc., and Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications at Probability Management.org
Shaun Doheney is a Principal Analyst at Innovative Decisions, Inc. and the Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org - a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He holds a B.S. in Mathematics, an M.S. in Operations Analysis, and a Graduate Certificate in Data Analytics. As a Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) and Marine Operations Research Analyst, he performed qualitative and quantitative analyses and evaluations across major DoD decision support processes. His past projects featured optimization, multiple-objective decision analysis, quantitative risk analysis, discrete event simulation, and survey design and analysis. He has applied these techniques to force development system processes; wargaming; concept-based assessment; capabilities-based assessment; operational risk analysis; cost-benefit analysis; manpower and human resource development processes; and assignment and schedule optimization. His more recent efforts have focused on guiding adoption of analytic methods and optimizing allocation of resources across operational scenarios to inform portfolio funding decisions over a multi-year horizon.
Beth Goode, Lone Star Analysis
Beth Goode is a Director of Competitive Differentiation at Lone Star Analysis. She is responsible for delivering competitive intelligence and advanced analytic models for price to win to support successful strategic capture. She earned a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering from University of North Texas and a Master of Engineering Management from Duke University.
Deborah C. Gordon, Director City/County Association of Governments San Mateo County (2002-2018) and Former Mayor, Woodside, CA
Deborah C. Gordon is the Executive Director of the Preventive Defense Project at Stanford University, directed by the 19th Secretary of Defense, William J. Perry. Gordon serves on the Board of Directors of the Arms Control Association, Technology for Global Security, the Woodside Village Band and the Fort Ross Conservancy. She currently serves on the Woodside Town Council; as Director, City/County Association of Governments of San Mateo County; Chair, San Mateo County Legislative Committee; Chair, San Mateo County Resource Management and Climate Protection Task Force; and Member, San Francisco International Airport Community Roundtable. She is the former Mayor of Woodside, CA. Gordon has over 30 years of experience in algorithm design, signal processing, network design, and network security and holds several U.S. and Canadian patents for her work in medical instrumentation. She has developed systems for telecommunications, banking, and medical applications for private industry and government agencies. Her business experience includes corporate division management and she was founder and president of InforMD, Inc. She currently advises several small start-up technology companies. Gordon holds a BS in computer science from the University of Southern California.
Ujvalla Gupta, Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Ujvalla Gupta is the lead for the Predictive Analytics group within Gas Operations at PG&E. She has been with PG&E for eight years serving in various functions such as load impact evaluation of DER programs, financial planning and strategic analysis for Gas Operations. Prior to PG&E, she interned at the CPUC for an year working on California’s lighting energy efficiency programs.
In her current role, she is responsible for standing up the Predictive Analytics functionality to improve forecasting of work volume and unit cost of programs across Gas Ops to be used for financial planning. As part of the strategic objectives, she led standardization of modeling processes and facilitated collaboration by development of a singular repository for distributions, data and model scripts and trend set the use of the WIKI across Gas Ops. The long term objective of this group is to utilize cutting edge modeling tools and foster a change in culture to drive more data-informed business decisions in the realm of financial and work volume planning.
Ujvalla has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Delhi College of Engineering, India and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of California, Davis.
Max Henrion, PhD, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.
Max Henrion is CEO and Founder of Lumina Decision Systems, in Los Gatos, California. He has 30 years’ experience as a professor, decision consultant, software designer, and entrepreneur. Lumina builds software for risk management and decision support. He originated Analytica, Lumina’s flagship software product about which PC Week said “Everything that’s wrong with the common spreadsheet is fixed in Analytica.” Analytica is used by many Fortune 500 companies, as well as small consulting firms, universities, and government agencies, including California Air Resources Board, US Department of Energy, and the World Bank. Max was formerly a Professor at Carnegie Mellon, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, where he continues as Adjunct Professor. He has a BA from Cambridge University, M. Design from the Royal College of Art in London, and Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon. He has published three books including Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Policy and Risk Analysis (Cambridge University Press, 1990), and over 60 articles in decision and risk analysis, energy and environment, and artificial intelligence. His project on decommissioning oil platforms won the 2014 Decision Analysis Practice Award from the Society for Decision Professionals. He won the 2018 Ramsay Medal, the highest award of the INFORMS Society for Decision Analysis.
Doug Hubbard, Hubbard Decision Research and author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s *Still* Broken
Mr. Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of one of the best-selling business statistics books of all time, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. He just released the second edition of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s *Still* Broken and How to Fix It. His other books include Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk. He has sold over 130,000 copies of his books in eight different languages and his books are used in courses in over a dozen major universities. His first two books are now required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam preparation.
Mr. Hubbard’s career has focused on the application of AIE to solve current business issues facing today’s corporations. Mr. Hubbard has completed over 100 risk/return analyses of large, critical projects, investments and other management decisions in the last 20 years. AIE is the practical application of several fields of quantitative analysis including Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and many others. Mr. Hubbard’s consulting experience and financial analysis totals over 30 years and spans many industries including pharmaceuticals, insurance, banking, utilities, cybersecurity, interventions in developing economies, mining, federal and state government, entertainment media, military logistics, and manufacturing.
Shayne Kavanagh, Government Finance Officers Association
Shayne Kavanagh is the Senior Manager of Research for GFOA and has been a leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning, policies, and probabilistic analysis for local government. He started GFOA’s research and consulting in long-term financial planning and policy development in 2002 and has been working with local governments on financial planning and policies ever since. He is the author of a number of influential publications on financial planning, including the leading book about long-term financial planning in local government, Financing the Future: Long-Term Financial Planning for Local Government; Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioner’s Guide to Government Revenue Analysis; and Financial Policies, GFOA’s flagship publication on the topic. He has written a number of articles on long-term financial planning, financial policies, budget reform, and other related topics for magazines including Analytics Magazine, Government Finance Review, Public Management, School Business Affairs, and Public CIO. Prior to joining GFOA, Shayne was the Assistant Village Manager for the Village of Palos Park, Illinois, where he was responsible for managing all aspects of financial management operations, including budgeting, utility billing, payroll, and accounting. He received his MPA degree from Northern Illinois University.
Tom Keelin, Managing Partner, Keelin Reeds Partners and Chief Research Scientist, Probability Mangagement.org
Tom Keelin has combined a career in decision analysis practice with innovations to advance the field. As Chairman of Millennial Capital, LLC, he has served as general partner for multiple successful real estate funds. He leads strategic decision-making for acquisitions, operations, dispositions, and portfolio management – using decision-analysis, modeling and probabilistic-simulation. Tom is also a founder and Managing Partner of Keelin Reeds Partners, a management consulting firm that provides strategy and decision analytic services. In that role, he has developed asset valuation, portfolio management, and business-development-deal-terms methodologies that have enabled greater success for dozens of client companies. In both roles, he recognized the need for better continuous-uncertainty representations and developed and published new probability distributions accordingly.
Previously, as Worldwide Managing Director of the Strategic Decision Group, he led the client work for and co-authored the Harvard Business Review article “How SmithKline Beecham Makes Better Resource Allocation Decisions” (Mar-Apr ’98). Through that work, he and his colleagues invented the portfolio-management standard which subsequently was adopted widely across life-sciences industry. Earlier, with Decision Focus, Inc, Tom developed the Over/Under Capacity Planning model, which effectively addressed demand uncertainty in electric power system planning and was widely adopted by many utilities and regulatory commissions over the following decade. Tom is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and a founder and director of the Decision Education Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that helps youth learn good decision skills for life. Tom holds three degrees from Stanford University: BA in Economics and MS and PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems.
Michael Lepech, Stanford Incheon Global Campus Research Center
Professor Michael Lepech's research focuses on the integration of sustainability indicators into multi-scale engineering design, ranging from materials design, to structural design, to system design, to operations management. Such sustainability indicators include a comprehensive set of environmental, economic, and social impacts. His research has focused on the design of sustainable high performance fiber-reinforced cementitious composites (HPFRCCs), fiber-reinforced polymers (FRPs), and bio-materials; the impacts of sustainable materials on building and infrastructure design and operation; high fidelity, multi-physics modeling of major infrastructure systems; and the development of new life cycle assessment (LCA) applications for transportation systems, building systems, water systems, and consumer products. He directs Stanford’s Smart Financing for Smart Cities (SFinSC) Project at the Stanford Incheon Global Campus Research Center (SCIGC). Professor Lepech received his BSE, MSE, and PhD from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (materials) from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, along with an MBA in strategy and finance from the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Harry Markowitz, Harry Markowitz Co.
Dr. Markowitz has applied computer and mathematical techniques to various practical decision making areas. In finance: in an article in 1952 and a book in 1959 he presented what is now referred to as MPT, "modern portfolio theory." This has become a standard topic in college courses and texts on investments, and is widely used by institutional investors and financial advisors for asset allocation, risk control and attribution analysis. In other areas: Dr. Markowitz developed "sparse matrix" techniques for solving very large mathematical optimization problems. These techniques are now standard in production software for optimization programs. Dr. Markowitz also designed and supervised the development of the SIMSCRIPT programming language. SIMSCRIPT has been widely used for programming computer simulations of systems like factories, transportation systems and communication networks.
In 1989 Dr. Markowitz received The John von Neumann Award from the Operations Research Society of America for his work in portfolio theory, sparse matrix techniques and SIMSCRIPT. In 1990 he shared the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on portfolio theory. Dr. Markowitz is the principal of Harry Markowitz Company (contact: HarryHMM@aol.com). He is also an adjunct professor at the Rady School of Management, UCSD.
Dan Matusiewicz, City of Newport Beach
Dan has more than 25 years of experience in municipal finance & accounting. Dan started his career in public accounting, auditing local governments throughout California. He is currently the Finance Director/Treasurer of the City of Newport Beach overseeing a $300 million annual budget and a $250 million investment portfolio. He is a frequent speaker at local government conferences, webinars and is also the current president of California Municipal Treasurer’s Association (CMTA).
He is a graduate of the Leavey Business School at Santa Clara University and holds a Bachelor’s of Science degree in Accounting. He is Certified California Municipal Treasurer (CCMT), a Certified Fixed Income Professional (CFIP) and the current President of the California Municipal Treasurer’s Association (CMTA).
Madeline Minchillo, Lone Star Analysis
Madeline Minchillo earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Agribusiness from Texas A&M University. As a Price to Win Analyst at Lone Star Analysis, Madeline is responsible for strategy development, competitive pricing analysis, and analyzing competitive intelligence to simulate bid behaviors across competitive landscapes. She has been the project lead for 2 EO/IR projects for the US Army and a nuclear planning network program for the United States Strategic Command.
CAPT Brian Morgan, Naval Postgraduate School
CAPT Brian Morgan is an active duty Navy officer with over 29 years of service. He is a Naval Flight Officer in the E-2C Hawkeye community and commanded VAW-117, based at NAS Point Mugu, CA, and assigned to the NIMITZ Strike Group, from November 2007 to February 2009. He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Virginia and a Master of Science degree in Operations Research from the Naval Postgraduate School. He has over six years of experience in the practical application of operations research at the Service headquarters level (i.e. enterprise level) while assigned to the Assessment Division (OPNAV N81) in the Pentagon. In this capacity, he coordinated campaign analysis and model development with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, other three Services, Joint Staff, and combatant commands. He is currently assigned as military faculty in the Operations Department at the Naval Postgraduate School and teaches courses on probability and statistics and systems analysis. CAPT Morgan’s research focuses on analytic techniques to assess warfighting challenges at the enterprise level. He holds leadership positions in the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).
Gregory S. Parnell, Ph.D., Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Arkansas
Dr. Gregory S. Parnell is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas and Director of the M.S. in Operations Management and M.S. In Engineering Management programs. He was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, (2nd Ed, 2011), lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis, Wiley Operations Research/ Management Science Series ( 2013), and editor of Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace, (2017). He previously taught at the West Point, the U.S. Air Force Academy, the Virginia Commonwealth University, and the Air Force Institute of Technology. He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University. He is a retired Air Force Colonel.
Matthew Raphaelson, Chair of Banking Applications at Probability Management.org
Matthew Raphaelson is a former senior finance executive in banking with 25 years industry experience. He is a former Director of BAI, a banking industry association focused on research, training and thought leadership, and is current Chair of Banking Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org. Throughout his career, he has applied quantitative modeling and decision-making under uncertainty to launch new business initiatives and manage multi-billion dollar businesses.
Steven Roemerman, Lone Star Analysis
Steven Roemerman is the Chairman of Lone Star Analysis and supports a wide range of clients in telecom, defense, aerospace, and energy. Steve led the Modeling Best Practices Benchmarking Project (MBP2), a multi-year international effort to find best practices in modeling, simulation, and analysis. He coordinated the effort which enjoyed the help and support several professional societies and organizations. Steve serves on the board of several institutions. At Probability Management, he leads best practices. He holds a degree in Applied Mathematics with post graduate studies in mathematics, business, telecommunications and signal processing. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE, a Life Member of the NDIA, and a member of the SPE, among other professional societies.
Sam L. Savage, Executive Director of Probability Management.org and author of The Flaw of Averages
Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He is the inventor of the SIP (Stochastic Information Packet), a data structure that lets simulations communicate with each other, and initiated the open SIPmath standard. He is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Michele Hyndman, former public relations manager for the Stanford School of Medicine Blood Center. Sam is also author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and is an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University.
After receiving his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University in 1973, Sam spent a year in the Mathematics Department at General Motors Research Laboratory, and then joined the Management Science faculty of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. In 1990, Sam moved to Stanford, where he is an Adjunct Professor in the Engineering School. He has been a Visiting Professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Business and the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, and is a Fellow of the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge.
Alex Sidorenko, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis in Decision Making
Alex Sidorenko is an expert with over 14 years of strategic, innovation, risk and performance management experience across Australia, Oman, Malta, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan. In 2014 Alex was named the Risk Manager of the Year by the Russian Risk Management Association.
As a CRO at the Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis in Decision Making, Alex is responsible for risk management training and certification across Russia and CIS. Alex worked as a Head of Risk Management at RUSNANO, one of the largest private equity funds in Russia, specializing in technology investment. Alex won an award for best ERM implementation at RUSNANO in 2014. Prior to that, Alex worked in senior risk roles at Skolkovo Foundation, Strategy Partners, PwC and Deloitte. Alex recently published his second risk management book called Guide to Effective Risk Management 3.0 which has been downloaded 45000+ times in 2 languages.
Alex is the co-author of the global PwC risk management methodology, the author of the risk management guidelines for SME (Russian standardization organization), risk management textbook (Russian Ministry of Finance), risk management guide (Australian Stock Exchange) and the award-winning training course on risk management (best risk education program 2013, 2014 and 2015).
In 2012 Alex created Risk-academy www.risk-academy.ru a web portal dedicated to free risk management training for SME across Russia and CIS, which since became the most visited risk management website in the country.
More information can be found here:
Stan Uryasev, Risk Management and Financial Engineering Lab, University of Florida
Stan Uryasev is George & Rolande Willis Endowed Professor, director of the Risk Management and Financial Engineering Lab at the University of Florida. His research is focused on efficient computer modeling and optimization techniques and their applications in finance and DOD projects. He published three books (monograph and two edited volumes) and more than 130 research papers. He is a co-inventor of the Conditional Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Drawdown-at-Risk optimization methodologies. He is developing optimization software in risk management area: VaR, CVaR, Default Probability, Drawdown, Credit Risk minimization.
Stan Uryasev is a frequent speaker at academic and professional conferences. He has delivered seminars on the topics of risk management and stochastic optimization. He is on the editorial board of a number of research journals and is Editor Emeritus and Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Risk.