Publications

 

Press Releases

Media Contact
Michele Hyndman
Associate Director
ProbabilityManagement.org
650-799-9885
michele@ProbabilityManagement.org

Milestone Publications


September 2016: Monte Carlo for the Masses, Sam Savage Analytics Magazine. Showcases the 3.0 SIPmath modeler tools and kicks off the Random Number Initiative.

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The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam Savage, John Wiley, 2009, 2012. Describes the pitfalls of average-case analysis and lays out the necessity of Probability Management. 

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A two-part foundational article on Probability Management was published in OR/MS Today. You can download PDF (Part IPart II) or view online (Part IPart II). (2006)


Books

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Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace

Edited by Gregory S. Parnell, 2016
Presents an integrated trade-off and risk analysis framework to identify value and risk. Examples from defense and commercial domains illustrate these concepts in the different life cycle stages. Chapter 9, includes an Integrated SIPmath Model by Alexander D. MacCalman, Gregory S. Parnell, and Sam Savage to examine Pareto charts, tornado diagrams and distribution functions to perform sensitivity analysis and identify dominant solutions in near real-time.

Calculating Uncertainty: Probability Management with SIP Math

by John Marc Thibault, 2013. 
This book provides a brief introduction to Probability Management and a tutorial on the theory and practice of SIP math.

Frontiers of Modern Asset Allocation

by Paul Kaplan, Quantitative Research Director at Morningstar Europe, John Wiley, 2012. 
Chapter 25 of the book, entitled Updating Monte Carlo Simulation for the Twenty-First Century, by Paul D. Kaplan and Sam Savage, describes Distribution Strings.


Articles