If squadron A has an 80% chance of accomplishing the mission, and squadron B has a 60% chance, then if we send them both, do they have a 140% chance? Of course not! is exploring additive representations of readiness that would apply in situations as diverse as the military and disaster relief.

Readiness Modeling Presentation

Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?”

Presented by Shaun Doheney, Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications; Connor McLemore, Chair of National Security Applications; and Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director


Integrated Readiness Videos

ADM Grady is the Commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command and U.S. Navy North. Listen to his incredibly insightful words in this short 3-minute video about developing an analytically-based integrated readiness assessment capability. This is exactly what has been preaching for some time now and what SIPmath Modeler Tools were designed for!

Watch the second video to see ADM Grady’s full Keynote speech. 17:55 to 24:30 is the full MUST WATCH on readiness!


Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model

Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model (.xlsx)

This conceptual SIPmath model calculates the chance that an Air Wing will be ready for a specified mission. It performs 10,000 trials per keystroke, based on a hypothetical readiness SIP Library.


SIPmath Readiness Roll-up Suite

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Rolled Up Readiness Model

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Operation Eagle Claw

Operation Eagle Claw was a failed special operations mission designed to rescue 52 Americans who had been taken hostage by Iranian revolutionaries in Tehran in November 1979. The Naval Postgraduate School uses it a case study in Flaw-of-Average based decision modeling. This is described in the accompanying presentation and Excel model, which lets you experiment with the reliability and number of aircraft sent, then instantly simulates 10,000 missions to determine the chances of completion.

Presentation (.pptx)

Model (.xlsx)


Cost vs. Risk in Defense Portfolios

“Cost vs. Risk in Defense Portfolios” by Philip Fahringer and Sam Savage, Phalanx (March 2012).

Article (.pdf)

Model (.xlsm)