If squadron A has an 80% chance of accomplishing the mission, and squadron B has a 60% chance, then if we send them both, do they have a 140% chance? Of course not! ProbabilityManagement.org is exploring additive representations of readiness that would apply in situations as diverse as the military and disaster relief.
Readiness Modeling Presentation
Presented by Shaun Doheney, Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications; Connor McLemore, Chair of National Security Applications; and Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director
Integrated Readiness Videos
ADM Grady is the Commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command and U.S. Navy North. Listen to his incredibly insightful words in this short 3-minute video about developing an analytically-based integrated readiness assessment capability. This is exactly what ProbabilityManagement.org has been preaching for some time now and what SIPmath Modeler Tools were designed for!
Watch the second video to see ADM Grady’s full Keynote speech. 17:55 to 24:30 is the full MUST WATCH on readiness!
Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model
Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model (.xlsx)
This conceptual SIPmath model calculates the chance that an Air Wing will be ready for a specified mission. It performs 10,000 trials per keystroke, based on a hypothetical readiness SIP Library.
Operation Eagle Claw
Operation Eagle Claw was a failed special operations mission designed to rescue 52 Americans who had been taken hostage by Iranian revolutionaries in Tehran in November 1979. The Naval Postgraduate School uses it a case study in Flaw-of-Average based decision modeling. This is described in the accompanying presentation and Excel model, which lets you experiment with the reliability and number of aircraft sent, then instantly simulates 10,000 missions to determine the chances of completion.