WEBINARS

Chance-Aged Modeling with Probability Management

Standards, Tools, and Best Practices

A series of webinars by Dr. Sam L. Savage - ProbabilityManagement.org

The Flaw of Averages is a set of systematic errors that occur when single numbers are used to represent uncertainties. It explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection. Traditionally, Monte Carlo simulation and other statistical techniques have been used to model uncertainty with random numbers, to estimate chances of meeting objectives or exceeding loss limits. These methods are well beyond the capabilities of the typical manager, who usually suffers from Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD).

Today, the open technologies of probability management have ushered in what we call the Chance Age, in which chances are embedded in the data itself.

ProbabilityManagement.org and GFOA are presenting a series of webinars to introduce you to the Chance Age. GFOA members may attend for free.

Webinar 1 – Give Chance a Chance (60 min)

Intended for anyone managing uncertain revenues, costs, or future projections. No statistical background is assumed. However, for those with extensive training in the area, this webinar should repair the damage.

Give Chance a Chance: Chance-Informed Decisions Probability Management: Making Uncertainty Actionable

Topics included:

• The Flaw of Averages

• Uncertainty as Data

• Chance-informed Decisions

• ChanceCalc™

This webinar will be offered multiple times on Wednesday December 13, 2023:

Webinar 2 – Chance-Enhanced Data and Tools (90 min)

Intended for Data Scientists, Statisticians and Analysts. The era of Monte Carlo simulation dates from the Manhattan Atomic Bomb project in 1947. Here the first digital computers were used to estimate the chances of uncertain events with elaborate programs generating random inputs. The Chance Age was ushered in with the open SIPmath™ Standard from ProbabilityManagement.org, which embeds the randomness in auditable data. This enables collaborative networks of simulations to power Chance-Informed decisions in fields as diverse as risk management, supply chain, cost estimation, military readiness, finance, and anywhere that measurable uncertainty abounds.

Topics included:

Data

• The Universal Probability Distribution – the Metalog

• The Universal Random Number Generator – the HDR

• The Open SIPmath Standard

  • CSV

  • 2.0 in Excel

  • 3.0 in JavaScript

Tools

• In Excel

  • The Data Table

  • ChanceCalc Calculation Tool

  • Dynamic Arrays

• In Python, R and JavaScript

This webinar will be offered at multiple times on Tuesday January 23, 2024:

Webinar 3 – Governance in the Chance Age (60 min)

Intended for Data Scientists, Statisticians and Analysts. In the Chance-Age, the uncertainties driving your decisions are stored as auditable data. To maximally leverage the benefits, you must capture the interrelationships of the underlying economic factors such as GDP, unemployment, discount rates, etc.

Topics included:

• The Chief Probability Officer, Keeping the General Ledger Coherent

  • Factor Models

  • Correlation

• Best Modeling Practices

  • SIP Libraries

  • Design of Experiment

• Presenting Results

  • Avoiding Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD)

  • Interactive Simulation

This webinar will be offered multiple times on Tuesday February 27, 2024: