Farming Decisions Under Uncertainty Proposal

These materials are in support of our proposal on Farming Decisions Under Uncertainty.

Materials include:

Farming Decisions Video
In this video, Dr. Sam Savage demonstrates how the Farming Under Uncertainty model (see below) works.

Farming Under Uncertainty.xlsx
A conceptual interactive simulation of farming decisions in native Excel that displays the chances of both good and bad outcomes and demonstrates the Flaw of Averages.


Rolling up Operational Risks at PG&E
An article that describes the basic approach of probability management in an industrial setting, which our proposal will bring to the small farmer.


Example Model from the Above Article
This model demonstrates a SIPmath model in Excel, which uses a stochastic library. It runs 10,000 simulation trials per keystroke without either macros or add-ins.


Key References

Luedeling E, Shepherd KD. 2016. Decision-Focused Agricultural Research. The Solutions Journal 7: 46-54.

Savage S. 2006. A two-part foundational article on Probability Management. OR/MS Today. Part 1, Part 2

Savage S. 2012. The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty. John Wiley.

Shepherd K, Hubbard D, Fenton N, Claxton K, Luedeling E, De Leeuw J, 2015. Development goals should enable decision-making. Nature 523, 152-154.