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Probability Management

Sign In My Account
Chancification
Tools
Excel Tools
ChanceCalc
R Code
XLTree
Standards
SIPmath Standards
2.0 Standard
3.0 Standard
HDR
Metalog
Copula Layer
Applications
Arithmetic of Uncertainty
Flaw of Averages Trilogy
Financial Management
Gateway to AI
Military Readiness
Natural Hazards
Pandemic Modeling
PRECISE Uncertainty
Project Management
Renewable Energy
Risk Management
Training
Courses
Webinars
Videos
Presentations
News
News
Publications
Blog
Models
Events
Livestream
About Us
Sponsors
Board Members
Our Team
Volunteers
Karen Guttieri, Associate Director

Karen Guttieri, Associate Director

Dr. Karen Guttieri is a scholar–practitioner specializing in national security, focused on how organizations exercise strategic judgment when interpreting disruption and uncertainty in complex sociotechnical systems, including in recent work on cyber resilience and power projection. She brings experience across defense education and research institutions including the Army Cyber Institute at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Air University, and the Naval Postgraduate School. Her roles have included research leadership, curriculum development, faculty leadership, and cross-sector collaboration at the intersection of technology, security, and policy. Her work frequently involves translating complex technical, socio-cultural, and behavioral insights for senior leaders and interdisciplinary teams, helping clarify assumptions and support shared understanding in uncertain strategic contexts. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia and is affiliated with Janos LLC and Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

Matthew Raphaelson, Technical Director

Matthew Raphaelson, Technical Director

For 25 years Matthew was the CFO for a large financial services business unit where with broad experience in finance, data science and risk management.  He is currently advising the California Public Utilities Commission on upgrading its Risk Decision Framework by tying together the concepts of risk management, financial discipline, and chance-informed decisions. He has been involved with Probabilitymanagement.org since its inception over 10 years ago and is the director of financial applications. He holds a BA from the University of Michigan and MBA from Stanford University.  Matthew has been helping CPUC (or SPD, or RASA?) advance the Risk-Decision Framework (RDF) by tying together the concepts of risk management, financial discipline, and chance-informed decisions.

June Klein, Chief Financial Officer

June Klein, Chief Financial Officer

June has over twenty years as a senior financial executive in high tech and higher education (non-profit).

Dave Empey, Director of Software Development

Dave Empey, Director of Software Development

Dave has more than twenty years of experience in Monte Carlo simulation. Helped develop the SIPmath Tools.

Mary Claire Meijer, Executive Assistant

Mary Claire Meijer, Executive Assistant

Supports the Executive Director and other team members. Multiple years of experience directing large volunteer staff. 

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Karen Guttieri, Associate Director
Matthew Raphaelson, Technical Director
June Klein, Chief Financial Officer
Dave Empey, Director of Software Development
Mary Claire Meijer, Executive Assistant
 
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