• Farshad Miraftab

• Brenda Olwin

• William D. Reed

• Steve Roemerman

• Doug Samuelson

• Sam L. Savage

• Keith Shepherd

Craig Daly
Subject Area Leader, Pure Technologies

Abstract

General: Over the past 20 years Craig has worked for both Public Utilities and Consulting Companies where he has performed a variety of tasks related to the development and management of water, waste water and storm water infrastructure.

Technical: Craig Daly currently works for Pure Technologies, a Xylem Company, as a Subject Area Leader where he performs a variety tasks related to pipeline condition assessment focusing on risk management, risk-based planning and asset management of utility systems. Craig manages a group of engineers that utilizes advanced analytics to:

• Develop a deeper understanding of how uncertainty affects our decision-making process. 

• Develop methods to incorporate uncertainty to capital planning of utility assets.

• Utilize optimization methodology along with a deeper understanding of uncertainty to minimize capital investment while producing the maximum benefit with respect to infrastructure management.

Education: Craig received a Bachelor of Science degree in Forest Engineering from the University of New Brunswick in Canada and a Master of Environmental Engineering from the Johns Hopkins University.

Tony DeMarco
Data Scientist, Lockheed Martin

Abstract

Tony is an experienced data scientist within Lockheed Martin Aeronautics’ Enterprise Integration Advanced Analytics team.  He is a retired Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier Pilot and Operations Research Analyst with extensive experience in both the US Government and Lockheed Martin using advanced mathematics, statistics and computational tools to extract business value from data.

Shaun Doheney
Chief Analytics Officer, JDSAT and Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications, Probability Management.org

Abstract

Shaun Doheney is the Chief Analytics Officer for JDSAT – a certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business specializing in Operations Research and Data Science.  He is also the Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org - a nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable.  He is an INFORMS Certified Analytics Professional (CAP®) and Project Management Institute-certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) with a B.S. in Mathematics from California State University, Long Beach, an M.S. in Operations Analysis from the Naval Postgraduate School, and a Graduate Certificate in Data Analytics from George Mason University.  Shaun has performed extensive quantitative and qualitative analyses and evaluations across major DoD decision support processes providing assessments to senior Marine Corps and Department of Defense leaders, including the Commandant of Marine Corps (CMC), Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps (ACMC), and various Deputy Commandants.

Ann Dunkin
State and Local Government Chief Technology Officer, Dell

Abstract

Ann Dunkin is a State and Local Government Chief Technology Officer at Dell. Prior to joining Dell, Ms. Dunkin was the Chief Information Officer for the County of Santa Clara. Located in the heart of Silicon Valley, Santa Clara is the 15 th largest county in the United States. Prior to joining Santa Clara County, Ms. Dunkin served in the Obama Administration as the Chief Information Officer of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Prior to her time in Washington D.C., she was the Chief Technology Officer for the Palo Alto Unified School District. Ms. Dunkin joined the School District after a long career at Hewlett Packard in a variety of leadership roles focused on Engineering, Research & Development, IT, Manufacturing Engineering, Software Quality and Operations.

Ms. Dunkin is a sought after speaker on the topics of technology modernization, digital services and organizational transformation. Throughout her career she has served on a wide range of professional boards and committees. Most recently she served as an editor of the International Journal of Advances in Software. In 2009, she served as the General Chair of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). She currently serves on the WSC Board of Directors and the Georgia Tech President’s Advisory Board.

Ms. Dunkin was named one of ComputerWorld’s Premier 100 Technology Leaders for 2016. She was also a recipient of a FedScoop 50 Federal Leadership Award in 2015, the FedScoop GoldenGov Federal Executive of the Year Award in 2016 and a LocalScoop GoldenGov County Executive of the Year Award in 2019. She was named one of DC’s Top 50 Women in Technology for 2015 and 2016 and to StateScoop’s Top 50 Women in Technology list for 2017. In 2018 she was inducted into Georgia Tech’s Academy of Distinguished Engineering Alumni.

Ms. Dunkin holds a Master of Science and a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering, both from The Georgia Institute of Technology. She is a licensed professional engineer in the states of California and Washington.

Contact: ann.dunkin@dell.com

LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/in/anndunkin/

Neil Hamlett
Founder and Principal, Uncertainty Management

Abstract

Neil Hamlett, DSc, MBA is founder and principal at Uncertainty Management, LLC, a consultancy committed to helping organizations realize measurable value through deliberate and disciplined adoption of analytics, data science, and artificial intelligence. While lead data scientist at IBM Watson Education, he created the key feature of an AI-based education-technology offering that attracted the greatest marketplace interest. As an IBM consultant Dr. Hamlett helped clients from multiple industries sort through analytics- and data-strategy challenges. During a 22-year career as a U.S. Navy Engineering Duty Officer, he provided system-engineering leadership for the acquisition of satellite-reconnaissance, airborne-surveillance, satellite-telecommunications, and global IT-infrastructure programs. He holds the MBA from the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business, and the Doctor of Science in Electrical Engineering from The George Washington University. A member of the Society of Decision Professionals, Dr. Hamlett also regularly reports on his research in Decision Analysis to conferences by the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science. He is published in IEEE IT Professional, and IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation. 

Dan Harmeyer
AC4ISR Strategic Program Execution Manager, Northrop Grumman

Abstract

Dan Harmeyer is the AC4ISR Strategic Program Execution Manager within Northrop Grumman’s Mission Systems Sector. Dan is a Chief Engineer, certified Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt, responsible for leading enterprise level performance initiatives for the Airborne C4ISR division within the sector, a business generating approximately $4B in annual sales. Dan started with Northrop Grumman in 2007, and his 20 year commercial background includes Finance, Supply Chain, Operations, and Continuous Improvement leadership roles. Dan is responsible for leading technical aspects of strategic initiatives, ensuring cost, schedule and quality objectives are met through the use of advanced analytics, multi-disciplined leadership, and continuous improvement techniques.  He currently works in a number of areas across business functional domains and technical product platforms leading operational performance initiatives. He provides leadership and expertise in solving complex business problems and creating solution architectures to support enterprise strategic business objectives.

Doug Hubbard
Founder, Hubbard Decision Research and author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s *Still* Broken and How to Fix It

Abstract

Mr. Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of one of the best-selling business statistics books of all time, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. He just released the second edition of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s *Still* Broken and How to Fix It. His other books include Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk. He has sold over 130,000 copies of his books in eight different languages and his books are used in courses in over a dozen major universities. His first two books are now required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam preparation.

Mr. Hubbard’s career has focused on the application of AIE to solve current business issues facing today’s corporations. Mr. Hubbard has completed over 100 risk/return analyses of large, critical projects, investments and other management decisions in the last 20 years. AIE is the practical application of several fields of quantitative analysis including Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and many others. Mr. Hubbard’s consulting experience and financial analysis totals over 30 years and spans many industries including pharmaceuticals, insurance, banking, utilities, cybersecurity, interventions in developing economies, mining, federal and state government, entertainment media, military logistics, and manufacturing.

Shayne Kavanagh
Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association

Abstract

Shayne Kavanagh is the Senior Manager of Research for GFOA and has been a leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning and policies for local government. He started GFOA’s research and consulting in long-term financial planning and policy development in 2002 and has been working with local governments on financial planning and policies ever since. He started working with ProbabilityManagement.org in 2013 has been working with local governments across North America on developing probabilistic risk models. 

He is the author of a number of influential publications on financial planning, including Financial Foundations for Thriving Communities and the leading book about long-term financial planning in local government, Financing the Future: Long-Term Financial Planning for Local Government, and Financial Policies, GFOA’s flagship publication on the topic.

Prior to joining GFOA, Shayne was the Assistant Village Manager for the Village of Palos Park, Illinois, where he was responsible for managing all aspects of financial management operations, including budgeting, utility billing, payroll, and accounting. He received his MPA degree from Northern Illinois University.

Tom Keelin, Managing Partner, Keelin Reeds Partners and Chief Research Scientist, Probability Management.org

Abstract

Tom Keelin has combined a career in decision analysis practice with innovations to advance the field. Tom is a founder and Managing Partner of Keelin Reeds Partners, a management consulting firm that provides strategy and decision analytic services. In that role, Tom has developed asset valuation, portfolio management, and business development deal terms methodologies that have enabled greater success for dozens of client companies. As Chairman of Millennial Capital, LLC, Tom has served as general partner for multiple successful real estate funds. He leads strategic decision-making for acquisitions, operations, dispositions, and portfolio management – using decision analysis, modeling, and probabilistic simulation. In both roles, he recognized the need for better continuous uncertainty representations and developed and published the metalog distributions -- initially to meet this need.  

Previously, as Worldwide Managing Director of the Strategic Decision Group, Tom led the client work for and co-authored the Harvard Business Review article “How SmithKline Beecham Makes Better Resource Allocation Decisions” (Mar-Apr ’98). Through that work, he and his colleagues invented the portfolio management standard which subsequently was adopted widely across the life-sciences industry. Earlier, with Decision Focus, Inc, Tom developed the Over/Under Capacity Planning model, which effectively addressed demand uncertainty in electric power system planning and was widely adopted by many utilities and regulatory commissions over the following decade.  Tom is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and a founder and director of the Decision Education Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that helps youth learn good decision skills for life. Tom holds three degrees from Stanford University: BA in Economics and MS and PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems.

Patrick Leach
Independent Strategy Consultant and Adjunct Professor, Colorado School of Mines

Abstract

Patrick Leach has over thirty years of experience in industry, consulting, and academia ranging from New Orleans to Indonesia, Scotland, Houston, and Colorado. He joined Decision Strategies Inc. in 2004 as a Senior Consultant, and was CEO of the company from August of 2011 through July of 2016. He now works as an independent strategy consultant in Denver and teaches Strategic Decision Making and Decision Analytics at the Colorado School of Mines as an adjunct professor.

Pat is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? - An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions, now in its Second Edition. He was also a Distinguished Lecturer during 2012-2013 for the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). He has written numerous pieces in his blog about the need to move toward sustainable business practices and how to use the principles of decision analysis and behavioral economics to develop strategies to do so.

Pat has a B. Sci. degree from the University of Rochester and an MBA from the University of Houston. He is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and is currently President of that Society. He holds memberships in the International Society of Sustainability Professionals, and INFORMS.

W. Allen Marr, PhD, PE, DGE, NAG
Geocomp Corporation

Dr. Marr founded and leads Geocomp, one of the foremost providers in USA of real-time, web-based performance monitoring of civil engineering structures, including dams, levees, deep excavations, retaining walls, tunnels, buildings, bridges and utilities.  Allen also has extensive experience in testing to measure the mechanical properties of earthen materials, designing earth structures, determining the causes of poor performance of geotechnical structures, developing cost effective remedial measures for troubled projects, and risk management. He is an elected member of the US National Academy of Engineers and the Moles. He has published widely and given invited keynote lectures around the world.

Bryan Massie
Chief Data Engineer/Architect and Technical Fellow, Lockheed Martin

Abstract

Bryan Massie is a Lockheed Martin Technical Fellow who is currently serving as the Chief Data Engineer/Architect for the Industrial Internet of Things Enterprise implementation. Bryan is actively involved in digital transformation and Industry 4.0. 

Before his current role, Bryan spent many years in Information Technology and on the F-35 Program performing modeling and life-cycle performance vs. cost simulations, risk management, and seasonal roll-rate forecasting. 

Bryan currently resides in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex with his wife and three daughters. He loves to go hiking, brew beer, and take his family on travel to see the world.

He is a graduate of the Leavey Business School at Santa Clara University and holds a Bachelor’s of Science degree in Accounting.  He is Certified California Municipal Treasurer (CCMT), a Certified Fixed Income Professional (CFIP) and the current President of the California Municipal Treasurer’s Association (CMTA).

Farshad Miraftab
Data Science Manager, PagerDuty

Abstract

Farshad Miraftab is a machine learning engineer, Bayesian enthusiast, and data scientist with experience in solving complex problems using scalable solutions for utilities, insurance, and software companies. He currently is a data science manager at PagerDuty, an incident management platform for software developers to help intelligently monitor, identify, and respond to complex service issues in real-time. Farshad's team is responsible for running and interpreting A/B testing experiments, optimizing funnel conversion rates, driving customer insights, and implementing predictive propensity models in the cloud to drive sales, marketing, and business strategy. Prior to PagerDuty, Farshad spent 4 years at PG&E supporting the gas risk management organization by designing novel statistical models to measure the top Transmission and Distribution enterprise risks. He also served as Witness assistant's to PG&E's GT&S, GRC, and RAMP regulatory and rate case filings.  

Brenda Olwin
Finance Director, City of East Palo Alto

Abstract

Brenda Olwin currently serves as Finance Director for the City of East Palo Alto and has advised the municipal public sector for over thirty years.  As an audit manager with KPMG, she led the team responsible for the City of Oakland’s first GFOA Certificate of Achievement in Financial Reporting. She has advised diverse organizations such as the City of Oakland, Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, Oakland Football Marketing Association, City of El Cerrito, and City of Benicia. She enjoys serving in disadvantaged or economically disrupted municipalities and finding opportunities to improve citizen services and achieve fiscal sustainability.  When out-of-office, she is usually outdoors and traveling with family and friends.

William D. Reed
Architect, Optiv Security

Abstract

William D. Reed, the author of the forthcoming book “Smart IT: Out-thinking your problems in an Age of Rapid Disruption, Complexity, and Risk”. An IT consultant for over 20 years with a focus on supporting technology leadership’s decision-making process and transforming their teams. With writing, consulting, and facilitation; inspiring the next generation of IT innovation for their organizations.

Steven Roemerman
Chair and CEO, Lone Star Analysis

Abstract

Steven Roemerman is the Chair / CEO of Lone Star Analysis.  In addition to previous CEO roles, he has served as an officer or director in more than a dozen corporations in technology, aerospace, finance, non-profits, and transportation. He is the recipient of many honors, holds more than a dozen patents, and has published dozens of papers. He is a member of the SPE, and a Life Senior Member of the IEEE.

Doug Samuelson
InfoLogix, Inc.

Abstract

Douglas A. Samuelson’s research focuses on mathematical and computational (mostly agent-based) models of decision-making, and especially on the direction of attention to which decisions to consider; and related topics in machine learning.  His other interests include health care policy, especially informatics and outcomes analysis, with particular emphasis on mental health; disaster response and preparedness, especially mass egress; trend and pattern analyses to support national security, focusing especially on force structure, resourcing, and cybersecurity; wargaming; fraud, abuse and intrusion detection; information assurance; evaluation of the benefits of information technology; and telecommunications systems design and reliability.  He invented predictive dialing for outbound telephone call centers; he has two other software / methods patents and a fourth under review. He was a successful high-tech entrepreneur and executive and an adjunct and research faculty member at several universities, and prior to that a Federal policy analyst.

He has his own consulting company, InfoLogix, Inc., in Annandale, Virginia.  

He holds a doctorate in Operations Research from The George Washington University and a B.A. in statistics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Sam L. Savage, Executive Director of Probability Management.org, author of The Flaw of Averages, and Adjunct Professor, Stanford University

Abstract 1
Abstract 2

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Kaiser Permanente, Lockheed Martin, Loring Ward, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, was a founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012). He is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.

Keith Shepherd
Principal Scientist and Research Theme Leader World Agroforestry (ICRAF); Head of Diagnostics and Decision Science, Innovative Solutions for Decision Agriculture (ISDA); Chair of Agricultural Applications, Probability Management.org

Abstract

Keith Shepherd is a Principal Scientist and Research Theme Leader of Land Health Evaluation, Restoration, and Investment Decisions at World Agroforestry (ICRAF), based in Nairobi, Kenya. His research focuses on (i) evidence-based approaches to measuring and monitoring land and soil health, and (ii) improving stakeholder decision-making through decision analysis. Keith has pioneered the application of light-based sensors for rapid and low-cost measurement of the quality of soils, plants and agricultural inputs in Africa. He has also developed a decision-focused approach to agricultural research and development which deploys participatory Bayesian approaches and value-of-information analysis to improve development decision-making in data-limited environments. Keith is also Head of Diagnostics and Decision Science with the start-up initiative Innovative Solutions for Decision Agriculture (ISDA) and Chair of Agricultural Applications at Probability Management. With 40 years’ experience in tropical land management, Keith has also worked with Hunting Technical Services; the University of Reading, the International Rice Research Institute, the International Centre for Research in the Dry Areas, and the Agricultural Research Division of the University of Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland. He holds a BSc Soil Science and PhD in Agricultural Botany from the University of Reading, UK.