Virtual 2023 Probability Management Summit
Risks, Opportunities & Projects in
Risk Management, Healthcare and Defense
Tuesday October 3, 8:30 AM - 4:00 PM EDT
Wednesday October 4, 8:30 AM - 4:00 PM EDT
Webinar hosting by: Highmark Health - Pittsburgh, PA
Description
Join the livestream as a select group of thought leaders gather in Pittsburgh, PA to discuss how breakthroughs in computation and data standards help organizations quantify the uncertainties in risks, opportunities, and projects. We will demonstrate how to leverage these open technologies while highlighting applications in Risk Management, Healthcare and Defense.
Virtual attendees will have the opportunity to actively participate as our host, Highmark Health will have moderators soliciting questions in advance and be available throughout the summit for live questions and discussions.
The fee to attend this two day event is $200.
Contributions from:
Schedule (all times EDT)
Day 1: Tuesday, October 3
8:30 AM - 9:00 AM: Welcome and Ushering in the Chance Age - Dr. Sam Savage, Probability Management
9:00 AM - 9:45 AM: Powering Strategic Decisions with Enterprise Capital Modeling (ECap) - Justin Schell, Highmark Health
10:00 AM - 10:45 AM: Values & Hidden Risk: Unveiling Hidden Risks in Scientific Modeling - John Button, Gartner
11:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Optimizing Insurance Portfolio Investments – Leveraging Cyber Quantification - Brian Paul & Claudia Piccirilli, WTC
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM: Lunch
1:00 PM - 1:45 PM: Staying Ahead of Cyber Threats with FAIR & SIPmath - Jack Jones, FAIR Institute
2:00 PM - 2:45 PM: Optimizing Investment Allocations - Mandi Surgeon, Highmark Health
3:00 PM - 3:45 PM: Data Driven Risk Management - Lakhbir Lamba, PNC Bank
Day 2: Wednesday October 4
8:30 AM - 9:00 AM: Welcome and Insights from the Cutting Edge of the Healthcare Transformation - Jim Brown, Highmark Health
9:00 AM - 9:45 AM: Financial Risk Assessment Tool for Logistics Contract - Tony DeMarco and Linda Dao, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics
10:00 AM - 10:45 AM: Probabilistic Representations of Psychological Phenomena - Peter Mallik, Hubbard Decision Research
11:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Delivering Savings in IT Portfolio Investments - Eng-Wee Yeo, Kaiser Permanente
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM: Lunch
1:00 PM - 1:45 PM: The Future of Probability Management - Matthew Raphaelson, Probability Management
2:00 PM - 2:45 PM: Moving Uncertainty Management from Spreadsheets to Full Enterprise Applications - Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems
3:00 PM - 3:45 PM: Risk Spend Efficiency with Catastrophe Modeling in Local Government - Shayne Kavanagh, GFOA and Dr. Sam Savage, Probability Management
Speakers and Topics (in order of appearance)
Sam Savage: Ushering in the Chance Age
Avoiding the Flaw of Averages
The Hindu/Arabic Numbers of Uncertainty
Chancification – Wiring your organization for probability
Justin Schell: Powering Strategic Decisions with ECap Modeling
Creating a highly flexible capital model to measure risk capacity using the SIPmath Standard.
Leveraging SIPmath libraries from other processes (e.g., Cyber Insurance) in the enterprise Model.
Using the ECap model as a “Probability Power Plant” to power decisions elsewhere in the enterprise.
John Button: Values & Hidden Risk: Unveiling Hidden Risks in Scientific Modeling
Reiterate the importance of understanding the role of values in any scientific modeling.
Emphasize the need for ongoing critical evaluation of models to ensure hidden risks are identified and addressed.
Present an example from Probability Management on one attempt to bridge the gaps.
Brian Paul & Claudia Piccirilli: Optimizing Insurance Portfolio Investments – Leveraging Cyber Quantification
Leveraging the proprietary WTW Connected Risk Intelligence (CRI) model to help organizations evaluate their total risk
Applying this approach to develop an optimal risk financing strategy
Leveraging our NEW Cyber Quantified model as but one critical input to the CRI engine.
Jack Jones: Staying Ahead of Cyber Threats with FAIR & SIPmath
Combining FAIR and the SIPmath Standard to gain near real-time visibility into an organization's susceptibility to cyber-attacks.
Mandi Surgeon: Optimizing Investment Allocations
Use key measurements to assess portfolio performance for returns, mid-range risk and severe risk.
Identify how stochastic optimization can improve asset allocation based on portfolio return objectives.
Lakhbir Lamba: Data Driven Risk Management
Using data to manage credit risk
Leveraging AI to mitigate fraud risk
Jim Brown: Welcome
Insights from the cutting edge of the healthcare transformation.
Tony DeMarco and Linda Dao: Financial Risk Assessment Tool for Logistics Contract
Lockheed Martin’s simulation tool examines the effects of uncertain part demand / customer flight hours on financial metrics.
Optimizing contract parameters and exploring possible outcomes.
Applying Monte Carlo simulations using SIPmath to a financial risk quantification scenario.
Peter Mallik: Probabilistic Representations of Psychological Phenomena
Understand the history of probabilistic applications to sensation and perception.
Identify how internal and external factors can impact probabilistic representations within cognition.
Eng-Wee Yeo: Delivering Savings in IT Portfolio Investments
Using the FAIR-SIPmath approach to connect risk management and investment decisions.
Applying this approach to other risk functions in the enterprise.
Matthew Raphaelson: The Future of Probability Management
Tools: Developments in native excel… and how to make any platform “Chance Age-compatible.”
Standards: Involve and Evolve
Governance:
FAIR-SIPmath Approach
The Chief Probability Office
Max Henrion: Moving Uncertainty Management from Spreadsheets to Full Enterprise Applications
Learn how the SIPmath Standard is integrated into Analytica to create and use SIPs.
How to use Analytica to create web-based interactive dashboards.
Shayne Kavanagh & Dr. Sam Savage: Risk Spend Efficiency with Catastrophe Modeling in Local Government
Leveraging mega models to build SIPs for managing climate change.
Examining the risk spend efficiency of flood mitigation investments.