ChanceCalc
For the Arithmetic of Uncertainty
Arithmetic tells us that X+Y=Z.
The Arithmetic of Uncertainty asks us what we want Z to be, and then says: “Here are your chances.”
ChanceCalc is an Excel add-in that accesses uncertainties stored as SIP Libraries in the cloud, then calculates the chance of achieving your targets in native Excel with a single command. ChanceCalc Light is free and has limited input and output abilities. See chart below.
ChanceCalc vs. ChanceCalc Light
| ChanceCalc Light | ChanceCalc | |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Input SIPs | 5 | Unlimted |
| Number of Libraries | 1 | Unlimted |
| Save Output Libraries | No | As CSV File |
NOTE: ChanceCalc requires Excel for Windows or Office 365 or later on Mac
ChanceCalc Light - Windows
Free
ChanceCalc Light - Mac
Free
Documentation
Sources of SIP Libraries
ChanceCalc can access SIP Libraries from authoritative sources in either the SIPmath 2.0 or SIPmath 3.0 Standard generated with any of the packages below.
SIPmath Modeler Tools from ProbabilityManagement.org
The SIPmath Modeler Tools create Monte Carlo simulations using Excel’s Data Table. This means that:
Unlike other simulation packages, you can run the models in native Excel without having the tools installed.
The models are interactive, running thousands of trials per keystroke.
There is both a free and Enterprise version, and both can generate their own random numbers or read and write SIPmath 2.0 Libraries, which can be read by ChanceCalc. They are a logical upgrade from ChanceCalc for those who want to graduate beyond using SIP Libraries generated by others.
RSIPlibrary from ProbabilityManagement.org
This is an open-source R package written by Aaron Brown, which takes Monte Carlo trials from any program, stored as columns in CSV format, and creates a SIPmath 3.0 Virtual SIP Library, which may be read by ChanceCalc. Contact us to obtain code.
PySIPlibrary from ProbabilityManagement.org
This is a Python version of the R package above. Contact us to obtain code.
Numerous analytical Excel add-ins from Frontline Systems
Frontline Systems is the company that created the Solver in Excel, and it offers a wide range of analytical tools that include simulation and optimization. Its packages were the first to recognize the SIP and SLURP data type. They have powerful solvers for optimizing models with uncertain inputs.
Analytica from Lumina Decision Systems
Analytica is a powerful multi-dimensional modeling language, which can deliver a complete probability management solution, including simulation and optimization. It has recently been used to generate SIPmath 2.0 SIP Libraries from hospitalization forecasts from the CDC.
Autobox from Automatic Forecasting Systems
Autobox performs sophisticated time series analysis. Virtually all forecasting systems track estimates of their own accuracy. Autobox can output these automatically as a SIPmath 2.0 SIP Library.
Crystal Ball from Oracle
Crystal Ball has been a widely used Monte Carlo simulation package since the 1980s. It has a large userbase and was acquired by Oracle in 2009. The Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools from ProbabilityManagement.org have a function to generate SIPmath 2.0 SIP Libraries from Crystal Ball models.
@RISK from Palisade Corporation
@RISK is another widely used Monte Carlo simulation package dating back to the 1980s. It has a large userbase and was developed Palisade Corp., which has other analytical packages beyond simulation. The Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools from ProbabilityManagement.org have a function to generate SIPmath 2.0 SIP Libraries from @RISK models.