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Joint Workshop: Douglas Hubbard/Sam Savage
Probability Management: A Cure for the Flaw of Averages and Enterprise Risk Management
(Day 2 includes a tour of the F-35 production plant)
September 12-13, 2018
Fort Worth, TX
**Registration is closed for this event**
Join Douglas Hubbard and Sam Savage for a new workshop hosted by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics at the F-35 production plant. Attend Day 1, Day 2, or both. Lunch will be provided. A certain number of Lockheed Martin employees may attend at no charge. Please contact Melissa Kirmse (email@example.com) for the promo code.
Day 1: September 12
Probability Management -
A Cure for the Flaw of Averages
9:00 AM - 5:00 PM
Day 2: September 13
Enterprise Risk Management (includes tour of the F-35 production plant)
9:00 AM - 5:00 PM
Learn how to perform 10,000 simulated trials in native Excel!
Sam Savage, author of The Flaw of Averages, will show you:
- How to cure the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that cause your projects to be behind schedule, below projection, and beyond budget.
- How to use the SIPmath Tools to create interactive risk dashboards that perform thousands of Monte Carlo trials per keystroke in native Excel, including a live modeling session.
- How to roll up operational risk using a Consolidated Risk Statement.
- The Open SIPmath™ Standard, which represents uncertainties as auditable data
- The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
- Applications of probability management in project planning, capital expenditures, operating expenses, evaluating uncertain business opportunity, and solving the sandbag problem
No statistical background is assumed, but for those with extensive training in the subject, the damage is typically repaired in the first 45 minutes.
Rated PG-13: Contains Strong Language Regarding Current Risk Management Practices
Risk Assessment and Management: Know which methods are placebos and which show measurable improvements.
Is risk management working in your enterprise? How would you know? Risk managers don't get immediate feedback on whether their analysis was realistic or if their risk management methods are working. Even when results are tracked diligently, it may take time to confirm whether risks were changed at all. Doug Hubbard, author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, will explain how to tell an "analysis placebo" from what really works. Research shows how our estimates can be improved by systematically controlling for known errors in expert judgement even with limited data. Learn how some level of quantitative risk assessments which improve on expert judgement alone are practical in virtually any environment for any kind of risk. In this session, participants will learn the following:
- Why many current popular methods are more placebo than panacea
- What the research says about how to improve estimates of risks
- How quantitative methods work even where you thought they wouldn't
- Practical, simple methods you can adopt immediately
- An overview of more advanced methods to aspire to
After this session, you will have new ideas about what "best practices" should really mean.
Cancellations received up to one week prior to the event will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given after that point. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse. Substitutions are welcome in lieu of cancellations.
**Must use current military, government, or academic email to receive Academic/Government rates.