https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog daily 0.75 2023-02-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1520373099138-EURJFG3VRO6Q56EPBKCL/Blog_Header.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2026/1/22/cfo-chancometer monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/20aff087-dd68-4994-afa9-b4ed6c994442/Blog+Top+4.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e51ec50c-aa6e-473e-8b13-746330abd418/Maslow.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/199be82d-5b59-4205-be50-369198e7faf9/Figure+1.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Figure 1. Static forecast as submitted by lines of business and cost centers. These images are reproduced from the CFO phone app, available using the QR Code above. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b952c14b-a7d4-4b7c-a701-749c7a1f63da/Figure+2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Figure 2. Stochastic cash flow forecast based on stochastic data calculation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4d7d1ec1-62db-4b31-9d61-0f48fdbb634d/Figure+3-4.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Figure 3. Based on static forecast. Figure 4. Based on stochastic data calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/ccbc80b8-cbcb-43b4-8eeb-f5921828803a/Figure+5.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Figure 5. ChancOmeters for reducing expenses; reducing expenses and calling in receivables; reducing expenses, calling in receivables, and increasing the LOC. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1767637100684-M7FZ6Y7U9Y7FFRMCVQZ2/Matthew+Raphaelson+photo+Jan+2026.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The CFO ChanceOmeter - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2025/12/11-decision-analysis-in-chance-age monthly 0.5 2026-01-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5c3d1a38-6cf5-4e0b-8866-5555279672f9/blog+dec+2025.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Decision Analysis in the Chance Age: A Concept Whose Time Has Come - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/470d6177-b8c3-43e3-8ec4-89136e542082/greg+parnell+book+2025.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Decision Analysis in the Chance Age: A Concept Whose Time Has Come - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2025/10/6/internet-economy-meets-chance-economy monthly 0.5 2025-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/113e6dd3-0b12-4391-84e8-cd560cd21a7e/ChancePlan+Where+it+Applies.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/21f5ea38-6399-4289-bacf-ca779985eef2/Network+GIF+L+%282%29.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2c5c530c-a70e-4a48-a36d-9b2ec15a023d/blog+October+2025+capacity.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/61a7d7f4-73ad-4e19-9587-5688a432ceb8/blog+October+2025+investment.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/76953916-caf3-4839-a2bc-0a7895481076/blog+October+2025+clinical.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b1ae9162-815e-41ef-9806-c4da5600246f/blog+October+2025+construction.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Internet Economy Meets the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2025/7/31/majic-movement monthly 0.5 2025-10-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/3eea9103-786f-4f9c-98ba-10152802ce42/MAJIC+blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Support the MAJIC Movement - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2025/7/9/brad-efron monthly 0.5 2025-07-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e2de6777-1b9e-4e58-9d6b-20399b206e67/Brad+Efron+Blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Brad Efron, Patron Saint of Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/9e75d33a-8b54-4a68-a69e-68683c7daa0d/standard+error+efron+blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Brad Efron, Patron Saint of Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/58ace783-bc23-45b2-9370-4a603bb0500e/Efron+Dice+%281%29.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Brad Efron, Patron Saint of Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/df1c7462-4ae0-4e94-9290-ab8646e60096/efron+dice+blog+video.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Brad Efron, Patron Saint of Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2025/6/2-andy-cunningham monthly 0.5 2025-07-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/9f85032b-511b-4bd9-8b4e-397fa9d76cee/Andy+Color+Headshot.jpeg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Andy Cunningham - Mother of the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/a33e2f99-6f5b-4165-85db-b7749a2058d3/Network+GIF+L+%281%29.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Andy Cunningham - Mother of the Chance Economy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/11/19-stochastic-data-gateway-to-ai monthly 0.5 2025-06-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/779b2b1d-4b82-4f22-81f1-d47d05fae0f1/Gateway+Blog+Graphic.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Stochastic Data: Gateway to AI - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/71cd6ba9-ea34-4170-bc29-0cff07e915b0/Part+2+FOA+%289%29.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Stochastic Data: Gateway to AI - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d03f52c3-c457-489c-bb9c-1982eec2e9b9/Flat+and+Real+Die.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Stochastic Data: Gateway to AI - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/10/21-stochastic-data-project-planning monthly 0.5 2024-11-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/c255ba4a-3167-419b-8046-f2fe9584b5e9/Toddler+in+hardhat.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Stochastic Data for Project Planning - Make it stand out Illustration from Construction Cost Overruns: Reference-Class Forecasts on Steroids by Pace Murray and Sam Savage in Phalanx Magazine. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/9/30-gateway-to-ai monthly 0.5 2024-10-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2abf62e6-2628-4ca1-b93d-fa022ab50b21/Album+angle.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Gateway to AI – Videos from the Chance Age - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d7187c89-6848-4c16-9792-077ebe3c57a8/RAW+Banner.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Gateway to AI – Videos from the Chance Age - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/61e8ad2f-31ef-4399-8ec5-0fc0d9aa42fa/Exponential+Angle.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Gateway to AI – Videos from the Chance Age - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/36564eb9-da92-4132-9ef2-66dd44128937/Sam+and+John+singing.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Gateway to AI – Videos from the Chance Age - Make it stand out Sam Savage (left) and John Pearce in the early 1980s in Sun Valley, Idaho https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/8/27/jpm-markowitz monthly 0.5 2024-09-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/a60a535d-ffbe-4d85-be82-cf22df2199ac/JPM.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Our History in the Journal of Portfolio Management - Make it stand out Source: Predictit.org https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1687841270228-Z1R8IB24LUIMNRI5PGPX/harrymarkowitz.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Our History in the Journal of Portfolio Management - Make it stand out Harry Markowitz, 1927-2023 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d3f22cba-77cc-4438-9e64-9da145bb2ba7/Sam_Headshot_2024.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Our History in the Journal of Portfolio Management - Make it stand out Sam Savage https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/67036c33-b8c5-4b38-951b-15ca8f186779/ben+ball+headshot.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Our History in the Journal of Portfolio Management - Make it stand out Ben C. Ball https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/7/31/foster-a-dog monthly 0.5 2024-08-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7963c3c1-c0d3-4066-84a4-f362fc001591/rosey_dog+blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Foster a Dog: Get a Call Option on Love - Make it stand out Source: Predictit.org https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/eb4297c3-650f-418c-bc68-b593d09ba109/dog+blog+1.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Foster a Dog: Get a Call Option on Love - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7d8ac78b-2549-4bb8-9c26-8025d031ae14/dog_blog+2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Foster a Dog: Get a Call Option on Love - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7370332d-4ca0-4b42-b3f1-4c86997e84f3/Daisy_dog+blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Foster a Dog: Get a Call Option on Love - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/7/8/presidential-debate-probability monthly 0.5 2024-07-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/6d896361-11c8-4496-af89-8915519ccf6f/debate+blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - What did the Presidential Debate have to do with Probability? Everything! - Make it stand out Source: Predictit.org https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/5/1/chances-of-finding-gold monthly 0.5 2024-07-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/f0f314fc-7122-46b5-a398-2e971465e088/finding+gold+blog+%231.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - What are the Chances of Finding Gold While Saving Our Grid? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1144bfbe-801a-44b8-af8a-36719f9fb96f/finding+gold+blog+%232.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - What are the Chances of Finding Gold While Saving Our Grid? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2024/1/24-fair-meets-sipmath monthly 0.5 2024-04-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d5842021-3e55-49f9-996e-de383b503a77/blog+Jan+2024+Fair+meets+sipmath.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - FAIR Meets SIPmath - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/8/2/3rs-chance-age monthly 0.5 2024-01-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bbf911ea-9450-41c3-8c65-4901b731f0b8/drowningstatistian_chancewebinar.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Three R’s of The Chance Age - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1ee4e41e-e5fd-4bc9-b1be-143c5e4f1882/3r%27s+blog_colorchart.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Three R’s of The Chance Age - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/6/27/harry-markowitz monthly 0.5 2023-08-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/92c35e05-9926-480e-b386-d151049ede7e/harrymarkowitz.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - In Memory of Harry Markowitz - Make it stand out August 24, 1927 - June 22, 2023 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/acf72206-1bbc-41f2-8d02-79ed1ffc2a46/harrymarkowitz.riskreturn.blog.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - In Memory of Harry Markowitz - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/92a1d23e-0733-4913-8c2a-eed80ded9fdb/may2012.PM.orgmeeting.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - In Memory of Harry Markowitz - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/6/5/when-you-dont-know monthly 0.5 2023-06-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1d625de2-4ecd-4e95-8f6d-a0f3d84f1b27/johnbutton_June2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5fe8ba29-4d88-4a55-a518-0b959c6f2863/utilitytheory_dracula_font.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/33253c59-de55-47b1-8ba1-3d8a1f473d1d/histogram_blog_June2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/ff5c5957-b6ac-45df-8b8a-5949cf7f8c94/randomvariable_dracula_font.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/14bdc689-e747-4e1f-85bb-f9e09239d3fc/histogram2_blog_june2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d441ae03-f3a8-46a2-b7d1-f6c28cc2b61b/centrallimittheorem_dracula_font.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2fa617c4-4537-401e-9238-2b03b78dfbc4/Drunk.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e26c8901-a794-4700-992f-930cd0424560/jensensinequality_dracula_font.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/30ba2888-13cd-4553-a50e-8f80b1c36d8b/correlationcovariance_dracula_font.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/5/9/multivariate-metalog monthly 0.5 2023-05-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1632244610908-T9MXT55PO2NKE8GRZI0N/8_sec_rotation_Cropped.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Multivariate Metalog - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/a6b867c3-a6cb-4f65-a80d-af36e4a5f4c9/keelin_webinar.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Multivariate Metalog - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/4/21/topgun-bayesomatic monthly 0.5 2023-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/3650858c-94b7-4e8a-a730-5174313dfe92/topgun_bayesomatic_blog%231.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Figure 1. Hypothetical bank liquidity model: “magical thinking” results in a modest liquidity cushion (difference between red line and blue line) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b0b4a1b9-69cd-4848-a484-918aadd1e509/topgun_bayesomatic_blog%232.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/0368ceaf-80f0-42b9-8306-c142ec2257d8/Bayes+22.8.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/60d75062-b68e-4111-a247-8d1561f625b0/Bayes+Graphic.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/dc391fd8-f38f-4256-8b62-7217f5915f9e/topgun_bayesomatic_blog%235.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out The actual Top Gun Data Table is shown above. Note that targeting laser 2 failed on trial 9. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/571461ac-d4c2-41ad-8d40-8590479158f0/topgun_bayesomatic_blog%236.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out The cells above are interpreted by a bunch of formulas I hope you can figure out on the Calculations sheet located as shown below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/f1980ce5-de95-45ca-97b7-1925d12a8b24/topgun_bayesomatic_blog%237.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Note that there is a second copy of our new trial control on this sheet so you can select individual trials as you figure out the formulas above. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b1c0f361-6f4d-4e05-a314-1c27fb027152/Bayes+0.2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Top Gun BayesOmatic - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/4/10/topgun monthly 0.5 2023-08-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e28216e8-fc32-4ec2-91d9-c51b586fc7e5/topgun_blog_april2023_%231.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Figure 1. Hypothetical bank liquidity model: “magical thinking” results in a modest liquidity cushion (difference between red line and blue line) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bb4a089c-8dc3-4306-abea-603a7870b8e3/PM+Org.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Figure 2. Once the interrelationship between interest rates, customer liquidity and bank liquidity is captured, it is clear the “magical thinking” liquidity model vastly under-estimates the true liquidity requirement (difference between red line and black line) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1679631851645-6P010EJ381QS9GERGKBM/best_mors_logo.jpeg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Figure 3a. Hypothetical bank with high unrealized losses but no additional liquidity risk. The bank has enough capital to absorb actual losses. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/93310a6a-db6c-4fb8-84c9-df5e41f2a318/MORS.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7562ab3e-06d8-4055-a46c-e5e1ed719d85/Target.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/0368ceaf-80f0-42b9-8306-c142ec2257d8/Bayes+22.8.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b1c0f361-6f4d-4e05-a314-1c27fb027152/Bayes+0.2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - TOP GUN: MAVERICK A WALK IN THE PARK OR MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/3/30/svb monthly 0.5 2023-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b625ae47-4651-4c59-8660-421cb2bf4bf8/SVB_blog_%231.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Silicon Valley Bank - The Sound of Two Hands Clapping Incoherently? - Make it stand out Figure 1. Hypothetical bank liquidity model: “magical thinking” results in a modest liquidity cushion (difference between red line and blue line) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d65588af-0fcc-43bc-b09b-fe1f6f0684fb/SVB_blog_%232.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Silicon Valley Bank - The Sound of Two Hands Clapping Incoherently? - Make it stand out Figure 2. Once the interrelationship between interest rates, customer liquidity and bank liquidity is captured, it is clear the “magical thinking” liquidity model vastly under-estimates the true liquidity requirement (difference between red line and black line) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/41d8e075-ea32-423b-8b28-5baea54e4695/SVB%233_Blog_March2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Silicon Valley Bank - The Sound of Two Hands Clapping Incoherently? - Make it stand out Figure 3a. Hypothetical bank with high unrealized losses but no additional liquidity risk. The bank has enough capital to absorb actual losses. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/8bb55c2a-7ad9-40d2-b8f7-fcee76b64a91/SVB%234_Blog_March2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Silicon Valley Bank - The Sound of Two Hands Clapping Incoherently? - Make it stand out Figure 3b. With interrelationships between interest rates, customer liquidity, bank liquidity, and bond values captured, insolvency is imminent. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/3/23/mors-pm-cop monthly 0.5 2023-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b9b992fe-fa94-4c25-9a46-af048a3102b1/Cop_blog_March2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - MORS Announces a Community of Practice in Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/03939698-e116-48b2-a000-0258a010909d/Topgun_blog_March2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - MORS Announces a Community of Practice in Probability Management - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/3/1/value-of-info-war monthly 0.5 2023-03-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b1ef5cfc-da5a-46d3-abaf-e55f18817f40/Blog_Value+of+Info+in+War_youtube_Feb+2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Value of Information in War: You and What Army? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/db7f2889-7ea7-4fd4-ac51-7bd1a4c97e4d/Blog_Value+of+Info+in+War_Danzinger_Feb+2023.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Value of Information in War: You and What Army? - Make it stand out Image from The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012, used by permission. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/1/17/the-only-valid-excuse monthly 0.5 2023-01-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/6a72ddab-5387-4635-959d-cb0d5aaef98a/Sinclair_Blog_Image1_Jan2023 Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Only Valid Excuse for not Quantifying Uncertainty - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5117d20b-fc42-46a7-9528-d5b1d088b969/Sinclair_Blog_Image2_Jan2023 Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Only Valid Excuse for not Quantifying Uncertainty - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4751a8e7-92a7-467e-9928-de46191f192e/Sinclair_Blog_Image3_Jan2023 Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Only Valid Excuse for not Quantifying Uncertainty - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1d923899-ca9e-4d50-97d3-ce7cdf82e950/UncleSam2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Only Valid Excuse for not Quantifying Uncertainty - Make it stand out WWelcome to the Chance Age Webinars https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2023/1/5/chatgbt monthly 0.5 2023-01-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/dad9adb2-6a76-418b-a94f-6b7c549c31fd/Screen+Shot+2023-01-05+at+12.55.08+PM.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - ChatGPT Waxes Poetic on the Flaw of Averages and Metalog Distribution - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/d47e1085-ad37-432a-9743-834d991a318c/Screen+Shot+2023-01-05+at+12.58.47+PM.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - ChatGPT Waxes Poetic on the Flaw of Averages and Metalog Distribution - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4ad6dc78-e99a-4e48-81a8-a43ad12b9fae/Screen+Shot+2023-01-05+at+1.36.47+PM.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - ChatGPT Waxes Poetic on the Flaw of Averages and Metalog Distribution - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/6331cf07-ec11-4316-ac26-9000b819befe/Screen+Shot+2023-01-05+at+1.37.09+PM.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - ChatGPT Waxes Poetic on the Flaw of Averages and Metalog Distribution - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/12/27/merry-chancemas monthly 0.5 2023-01-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/0bac4052-afe2-4ea7-82a7-2f35c23fcc7f/chancemas.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Merry Chancemas - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/12/5/join-the-chance-age monthly 0.5 2022-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/9bc2c6f5-af2c-4d43-bbe0-74f52cc98b3b/ChanceCalc_Logo_blog_Dec+2022.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Join the Chance Age with Our Latest Tools - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5fd4e396-b337-4d17-9b71-f770dc9bfa98/ChanceCalcRibbon_022222.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Join the Chance Age with Our Latest Tools - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/46b74c6d-cb40-469e-b4e0-4ba04db63089/metalog_blog_Dec+5+2022.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Join the Chance Age with Our Latest Tools - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/14f8cb44-69e0-4193-83a7-d547b888993a/MonteCarlo_Blog_Dec+2022.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Join the Chance Age with Our Latest Tools - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/cdcb9202-2b69-40ff-aca9-a9127ee9875d/birdhouse_blog_Dec+2022.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Join the Chance Age with Our Latest Tools - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/9/6/the-marketing-funnel-fallacy monthly 0.5 2022-10-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bd9050e0-0a40-4d84-be59-df0a3a751334/Funnel+1.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Marketing Funnel Fallacy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/f1dbb392-2643-4385-b895-5dc8268e5c6f/Funnel2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The Marketing Funnel Fallacy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/8/24/chancification-in-cost-estimation monthly 0.5 2022-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/53d16053-aee5-4d03-9cf1-c58ca36e1cee/ChancificationCostEstimation2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Chancification in Cost Estimation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/ee8580f5-a5c4-471a-9cbf-836e53f2ae05/ICEAA2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Chancification in Cost Estimation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/8/1/100-million-monte-carlo-trials-in-88-bytes monthly 0.5 2022-08-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/93d41e2d-34ee-4d4c-bea8-5416e965f454/MetalogInterface.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - 100 Million Monte Carlo Trials in 88 Bytes! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/7/15/the-sipply-chain-forum monthly 0.5 2022-12-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4753a274-89ba-4a9a-92e9-7e5a91470135/ProbabilityPowerGrid2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The SIPply Chain Forum - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4ea0a708-5496-401e-8bdd-6ce9a3b3156b/ChanceCalcTable.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - The SIPply Chain Forum - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/6/1/making-your-s-curves-actionable monthly 0.5 2022-06-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/9c32d0e5-5b44-4aae-b489-1cc6479767f4/UglyDuckling.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Illustration of the "Ugly Duckling" by Milo Winter, a renowned illustrator (August 7, 1888 – August 15, 1956), first published in 1916 in the United States in the book "Hans Andersen's Fairy Tales." https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/488cd83d-4195-4b40-b7d5-ba71c562129a/ICEAA.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620066972069-VN3OP0ZN1XVAEAOSXUCH/summing-uncertainty-cropped.gif Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/421c8d25-77cb-4043-886f-05afd074aca6/SCurve.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/df42da81-55b7-4b13-bea6-e7c639a13c7e/UncleSam2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e1ba8f2e-d981-4a23-afd6-e8bb237a0fe3/Chancification_small.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5176f7ca-e387-476b-b667-b92c026e10be/ChanceCalcLogo.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Making Your S Curves Actionable - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/5/18/introducing-the-first-online-generator-in-the-probability-power-grid monthly 0.5 2022-05-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/61c889cc-f353-4096-97b5-6165bb697232/OnlineApp1.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bdf04dc2-1fc0-40ac-ac45-3666fee5c455/OnlineApp2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1d512275-a17c-45d9-89e9-1074e2b466a0/OnlineApp3.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/5176f7ca-e387-476b-b667-b92c026e10be/ChanceCalcLogo.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/f36786e6-e7dc-44b4-a750-24db108e3b5e/Chancification_small2.jpg Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/df42da81-55b7-4b13-bea6-e7c639a13c7e/UncleSam2.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Introducing the First Online Generator in the Probability Power Grid - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog/2022/5/9/give-chance-a-chance monthly 0.5 2022-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/9ce6a4ad-15ba-4152-a807-4bc0f72bab5d/UncleSam.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - Give Chance a Chance - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2fa617c4-4537-401e-9238-2b03b78dfbc4/Drunk.png Limbic Analytics from ProbabilityManagement.org - 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Introduction 0:48 Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539824381319-KPRLBJC3FP1I4WRC3JLT/Stanford_1.png Stanford Webinar - 1. The Flaw of Averages 4:08 •The Concept •The Cartoon •The Audio Logo https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539828939456-U02PO7KQOW9JCKIX8QGU/Stanford_2.png Stanford Webinar - 2. A Cure for the Flaw of Averages 2:50 •Interactive Simulations in Excel •SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets) Conveying Uncertainty as Data https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539829541801-15JRQZJTSTEAOO1V0NWP/Stanford_3.png Stanford Webinar - 3. The SIPmath Standard 0:56 The 60-Cycle AC Current Standard for Conveying Uncertainty as Data https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539829300262-P2YWN9DC5XFML0Z9F9Y6/Stanford_4.png Stanford Webinar - 4. Putting It All Together 4:55 •Getting Distributions from Forecasts •Using Libraries with the SIPmath Tools https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/2019-annual-conference-video-stills daily 0.75 2019-05-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485273442-ZMKTOE940GSJHI3AR2J8/VirtualSIPs2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Virtual SIPs Speaker: Sam Savage Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485273442-ZMKTOE940GSJHI3AR2J8/VirtualSIPs2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Virtual SIPs Speaker: Sam Savage Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485309147-28AZOGBUZP9LRAWGTYRN/MAPModel2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - The Mission Assurance Portfolio (MAP) Model: A SIPmath Application of Scenario-Based Portfolio Planning with Uncertainty Speaker: Shaun Doheney Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485347893-AFRFDAQOF9K8NEWQC67V/TradespaceExploration2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Using Probability Management for System Design Tradespace Exploration Speaker: Gregory S. Parnell Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485469847-TS0KENUJ9Y11MK3VCCWJ/MetalogDistributions2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Metalog Distributions: Uses and Applications To Strengthen Your Capabilities Speaker: Tom Keelin Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485498555-8A718SRJILFYIAL5AAXP/RiskAnalysis2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Using Risk Analysis to Make Better Strategic Decisions Speaker: Alex Sidorenko Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485533680-FJ52NSU7TKN95NG8J27A/StochasticEconometrics2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Stochastic Econometrics Speakers: Katlin Bass and Madeline Minchillo Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485614380-LA0YH6H1MZW4SXBSYXKT/SupplementSafetyRequirements2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - How to Supplement Safety Requirements to Prevent Major Technological Catastrophes? Speaker: Stan Uryasev Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1557967560403-O3A0U0203DR8Z8GQKER0/VirtualSIPs.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Virtual SIPs (Sam Savage) Abstract Video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485667637-J6XFQ16JXSPNYXBPHQBS/UtilizationAttritionModel2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Utilization of an Attrition Model to Explore Warfighting Utility of Non-Kinetic Attacks Speakers: Brian Morgan and Harrison Schramm Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485841336-NVL44QU1W8EXSFUIFV3S/Panel60Cycle2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Panel - The 60 Cycle 120 Volt Standard for the Probability Power Grid: A Combination of SIPmath, Metalogs and the HDR Generator Panel Members: Doug Hubbard, Tom Keelin, and Sam Savage Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485882788-GHFHCT8Z2I7WNYH98PC7/FailureRiskManagement2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's *Still* Broken and How to Fix It Speaker: Doug Hubbard Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485918104-2TMV7M4QD84AWG96D6D5/PromotingPredictiveAnalytics2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Promoting Predictive Analytics in a Large Organization Speakers: Andrew Abranches and Ujvalla Gupta Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558485945993-L661BS2AY5MZPAQ4T6A6/LongRangeProbabilisticForecasts2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Long-range Probabilistic Forecasts of US Energy Use and Prices Speaker: Max Henrion Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486474979-K8NN21TKIMHCLUQMR25Z/ProblemBigData3.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - The Problem with Big Data Speaker: Harry Markowitz Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486007754-5AEOTVLFIBSQ9UCR0K4V/BeyondRisk2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Beyond Risk: Applying SIPmath Across the Enterprise Speakers: Raj Dev and Matthew Raphaelson Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486042688-ZQR2W8JE3W45LMS67DRW/RiskAwarePlanning2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Risk-Aware Planning for City Finances: How Much of a Rainy Day Fund is Enough? Speakers: Shayne Kavanagh and Dan Matusiewicz Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486068760-N3L7ZPQVF7SHDNOQ3IMY/MultiObjectiveOptimization2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Multi-objective Optimization for Sustainable Development of Transportation Infrastructure Networks Speaker: Michael Lepech Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486103844-GIRM0T6XKGQRF3ZRKH3U/SIPsSLURPs2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - SIPs and SLURPs of Water: Applied Probability Management Speaker: Thomas Chesnutt Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486133655-FPFYWR79HYVSPYYSJ060/WhenItHitsHome2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - When It Hits Home! Speaker: Deborah Gordon Abstract https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1558486171982-597UHHGSQ1IFGTSSKPL4/PanelApplicationsPM2.png 2019 Annual Conference Video Stills - Panel - Applications of Probability Management: Best Practices, Simplicity, Practicality, Legalities Panel Members: Katlin Bass, Thomas Chesnutt, Tom Keelin, and Steve Roemerman Abstract https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/2020-annual-conference-speakers daily 0.75 2022-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1582656816643-9WYUN81DPYY70UUNJJIC/image-asset.png 2020 Annual Conference Speakers Brian Asti https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1582656816643-9WYUN81DPYY70UUNJJIC/image-asset.png 2020 Annual Conference Speakers Brian Asti https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581732205462-NLEV27S5BAU25UEIMAAV/David%252BCawlfield.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - David Cawlfield David Cawlfield https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581732571522-EN2QCT40D7PPESAY9A8Q/Lonnie%2BChrisman.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Lonnie Chrisman Lonnie Chrisman https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581731937881-K31AXRZMQ382CRUR3567/Craig%2BDaly.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Craig Daly Craig Daly https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581974532856-U1VOHEHG9MTIQH1BLARH/Tony%2BDeMarco.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Tony DeMarco Tony DeMarco https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581704790165-NCKL3XXAL6TW58AG6Y31/Shaun_Doheney.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Shaun Doheney Shaun Doheney https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581703752816-3MGMWCU1UJEY0S2UEGP7/Ann%2BDunkin.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Ann Dunkin Ann Dunkin https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581704808303-4EQVM7SLLSNPDHZY5ROK/Neil+Hamlett+square.png 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Neil Hamlett Neil Hamlett https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1582657081474-DUXHVGL2U3BWYZNL84LR/Dan%2BHarmeyer.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers Dan Harmeyer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581703798288-YIPZG1G0V5XSQ4B77IAX/Doug_Hubbard.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Doug Hubbard Doug Hubbard https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581732821197-VX3F972WF85XGILGVI8B/Shayne%2BKavanagh%2Bnew.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Shayne Kavanagh Shayne Kavanagh https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581703894216-L3SZW0SGJJYOEB7TWMSZ/Tom_Keelin_.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Tom Keelin Tom Keelin https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581730073220-0RM607J884SKMTL01P9S/Patrick%2BLeach.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Patrick Leach Patrick Leach https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581704930966-M3G9JJLXWUKQS6X17OND/image-asset.jpeg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - W. Allen Marr W. Allen Marr https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581731752816-A2JREB1RDB5KOMT8KN5L/Bryan%2BMassie.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Bryan Massie Bryan Massie https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581986896612-1M0LP2CB1QNGVJNW9JT6/Farshad%252BMiraftab.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Farshad Miraftab Farshad Miraftab https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581636907963-LB4P6P8ECKL0X2GA4W8S/Ann%2BDunkin.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581731223781-Z9VOA1JUQA5H5TV6M29H/Brenda%2BOlwin.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Brenda Olwin Brenda Olwin https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581731397101-41TRJ3DHXPDA1YUN3UKP/William-D-Reed.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - William D. Reed William D. Reed https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581704583276-RCSG1Y2MF8DXC47MO1P9/Steve_Roemerman.gif 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Steve Roemerman Steve Roemerman https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581732264327-SZ1BO66FYUKUFH3E9OXP/Doug%2BSamuelson.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Doug Samuelson Doug Samuelson https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581636474711-34JCH3G0M751L8NFENZC/Sam_Savage_.png 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Sam Savage Sam Savage https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1581704189980-Y3MXBI958R9KTLG6E4FM/Keith_Shepherd.jpg 2020 Annual Conference Speakers - Keith Shepherd Keith Shepherd https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/about-us-board-members daily 0.75 2024-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1714166175228-CDHJQ9599EHCCTYKHN5N/SS-headshot.jpg About Us Board Members - Dr. Sam L. Savage Executive Director & Board Member Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to standardizing the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Kaiser Permanente, Highmark Health, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a co-founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012) and Chancification: Fixing the Flaw of Averages (2022). He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. He is an Adjunct in the Engineering School at Stanford University,Author of The Flaw of Averages and Adjunct Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1714166175228-CDHJQ9599EHCCTYKHN5N/SS-headshot.jpg About Us Board Members - Dr. Sam L. Savage Executive Director & Board Member Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to standardizing the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Kaiser Permanente, Highmark Health, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a co-founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012) and Chancification: Fixing the Flaw of Averages (2022). He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. He is an Adjunct in the Engineering School at Stanford University,Author of The Flaw of Averages and Adjunct Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1717456758943-CC8G46Q3HAQOK3RNEM62/Phil%2BF_headshot_june%2B2024.jpg About Us Board Members - Phil Fahringer Strategic Modeling Engineer Fellow with Lockheed Martin. Over 37 years combined experience in the military and industry. Master’s degrees in operations research and strategic studies, from the US Naval Postgraduate School and the US Army War College respectively, and an undergraduate degree in Business Logistics from Pennsylvania State University. Leads Lockheed Martin Corporation Strategic Modeling and Decision Support Community of Practice and Co-chairs the Military Operations Research Society probability management Community of Practice. Active with ProbabilityManagement.org since 2013. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1702057539119-5UONILPX1A6J50ESVR2Q/NancyGarrett_Nov2023.png About Us Board Members - Nancy Garrett Vice President of Market & Provider Analytics at Highmark Health. She brings together market expertise from both payer and provider perspectives to create next generation analytics that empower providers to take on risk and improve population health. Treasurer of the YWCA Minneapolis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1571176536947-UQZA035VP65S66BH0RHN/Deborah_Gordon.png About Us Board Members - Deborah Gordon Over 30 years of experience in algorithm design, signal processing, and networks. Active in local government and advises several small start-up tech companies. Holds several patents for medical instrumentation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1516686821544-QIRKXWLQTSH7CE6T480K/michelle+swag+2.jpg About Us Board Members - Michele Hyndman More than twenty years of public relations, marketing, and communications experience including positions at Stanford Graduate School of Business and Stanford School of Medicine. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1699918511678-B5Z29GWKER9DSIY3H00K/ShayneKavanagh_Nov2023.png About Us Board Members - Shayne Kavanagh Senior Manager of Research for GFOA. Leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning and policies for local government. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671465965-FJKV79SK6HN250A4ZVLB/Connor+McLemore.jpg About Us Board Members - Connor McLemore Principal Operations Research Analyst for CANA Advisors and Chair of National Security Applications since 2014. Former Naval Postgraduate School Military Assistant Professor and Operations Research Program Officer. Graduate of the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School (Topgun) with numerous operational deployments during 20 years of naval service. Has taught SIPmath at the Naval Postgraduate School and co-authored several articles and models displayed on the nonprofit’s Military Readiness page. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1724172176999-HB1LW85SAF33J509G63S/Greg+Parnell_Board+headshot.png About Us Board Members - Gregory Parnell Professor of Practice in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. Research interests include decision and risk analysis and systems engineering. Co-editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, (3rd Ed, 2022), lead author for the Handbook of Decision Analysis, (2013), and editor of Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace, (2017). He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University. Retired Air Force Colonel. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1717457603843-ZOCA3VFCXMW43THA8QYB/Steve%2BR_headshot_June%2B2024.jpg About Us Board Members - Steve Roemerman Co-founder, Chairman and CEO of Lone Star Analysis with over 30 years of experience leading international organizations in strategic decision-making. Led a multiyear international study defining best practices in AI, modeling, simulation, and analysis. This peer reviewed work is accepted as a definitive standard. Invited lecturer at several graduate schools and universities and publications include papers, articles, and books. Holds patents awarded and pending. Steve has been actively involved with ProbabilityManagement.org since 2014. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1571176297472-1VNTCBOA8RADFC7J04WE/salama_michael_2015.jpg About Us Board Members - Michael Salama Board Member Emeritus Vice President and Lead Tax Counsel, Walt Disney Company. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1699919023399-TH2DFJ2X2LRVD3QOQ1VU/harry-markowitz-1.jpg About Us Board Members - Harry Markowitz (1927-2023) Nobel Laureate in Economics https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/about-us-volunteers daily 0.75 2025-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1752183138028-RZPVBR2TZCAPL0P4ESHO/Anton+Headshot+Tall.jpg About Us Volunteers - Anton Rowe Assistant Director of Tools and Technology Experienced designer of decision tools. 26 years as research faculty at Naval Postgraduate School. Recipient, civilian service award. Developed commercial Mathematica Link for Excel package. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1752183138028-RZPVBR2TZCAPL0P4ESHO/Anton+Headshot+Tall.jpg About Us Volunteers - Anton Rowe Assistant Director of Tools and Technology Experienced designer of decision tools. 26 years as research faculty at Naval Postgraduate School. Recipient, civilian service award. Developed commercial Mathematica Link for Excel package. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1723670540985-65B47UMWWHIO2V2QBJHG/Greg+Parnell_Board+headshot.png About Us Volunteers - Gregory Parnell Assistant Director of Training and Certification Professor of Practice in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. Research interests include decision and risk analysis and systems engineering. He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University. Retired Air Force Colonel. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1585587627337-URHV8HZ11307N4FTOUSY/Eng-Wee+Ethan+Yeo.png About Us Volunteers - Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo Assistant Director of Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1615915654227-TDKUDR288LUHI7N0E8YQ/image-asset.jpeg About Us Volunteers - Robert Bordley Chair of Advanced Education Professor and Program Director, Systems Engineering and Design Program, University of Michigan Ann Arbor; formerly National Science Foundation, Booz-Allen Hamilton, General Motors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1679674775563-RUK8EIF72B3DTX63NA2Z/johnbutton_headshot_march+2023.jpg About Us Volunteers - John Button Enterprise Strategic & Technology Risk Expert, American Systems Corporation Managing editor of several publications including FAIR-CAM Control Physiology, Cultural Calamity, The Tao of Risk Management, and The Drone Age. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1704993778636-D34D5I5PY85OXHS50O4F/image-asset.png About Us Volunteers - Jimmy Chavez Chair of Construction Applications 3rd generation contractor and construction Project Executive at Command Performance Constructors. VP of Operations and Division Lead for federal contracting. Experienced in construction project management and probabilistic estimating. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1560308309659-69HDHYQXWY8X4B52JKH1/Bridget.png About Us Volunteers - Bridget Cash Chair of Collaborative Pandemic Modeling Specializes in non-profit leadership, community outreach, stakeholder facilitation, and strategic communications. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1566864795212-S619COWWJFSU870O45FC/TChesnutt_headshot_2.jpg About Us Volunteers - Thomas Chesnutt Chair of Water Practice Tom Chesnutt is the CEO of A & N Technical Services, Inc. with over thirty years of experience in water analytics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1740591092817-DTZO7U7OCKFPO51AKXTZ/Andy%2BColor%2BHeadshot.jpg About Us Volunteers - Andy Cunningham Consultant on Positioning Founder of marketing strategy firm, Cunningham Collective. Andy helped Steve Jobs launch the Macintosh and played key roles in marketing such new categories as video games, personal computers, desktop publishing, digital imaging, and SaaS. Author of Get to Aha!: Discover Your Positioning DNA and Dominate Your Competition.  https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539816195764-2GTDRKFQSYVLQB54X3LP/Shaun_Doheney.jpg About Us Volunteers - Shaun Doheney Chair of Chance-Informed Forecasting Senior Data and Analytics Strategy Advisor for Amazon Web Services (AWS); Senior Operations Research Analyst; Data Scientist; and Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel (Retired). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1637364145172-KF3RRADYZ86V3TITD9BJ/DougHubbard.jpg About Us Volunteers - Doug Hubbard Chair of Decisions and Measurements President of Hubbard Decision Research and author of How to Measure Anything. Video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1689894903872-I4PPQ41P1TAHO3AQBF7D/Paul+D+Kaplan+for+PM.jpg About Us Volunteers - Paul Kaplan Chair of Investment Applications Financial economist for 35 yrs (retired). Developed Ibbotson Associates’ modern portfolio theory software. Co-developed methodology for Morningstar’s next generation of asset allocation optimization software. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1637364170845-7DPWJ0ZKDZA1LK5UR3Y8/Shayne+Kavanagh+new.png About Us Volunteers - Shayne Kavanagh Chair of Local Government Applications Shayne is the Senior Manager of Research for GFOA and has been a leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning and policies for local government. Video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1632155296334-9D0O8TEF6K2DLO92VCK4/image-asset.png About Us Volunteers - Tom Keelin Chair of Research Founder and Managing Partner at Keelin Reeds Partners; former Worldwide Managing Director, Strategic Decision Group; Co-founder Decision Education Foundation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1713810323402-4MQ8L4X17XSAH1JL6P8G/DK_photo.png About Us Volunteers - Daniel Krashin Chair of Renewable Energy Applications Graduate Student at Stanford University and Power Design Engineer. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1675797201091-VDCY3U8HIOXMOWPL7GND/IMG_1874.jpg About Us Volunteers - Kevin McDonald Chair of Blockchain Decentralized Data Head of Products at Solace Finance, a DAO developing an underwriting marketplace for decentralized finance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187778673-60P983W8UBW59Y7MZC47/Connor.jpg About Us Volunteers - Connor McLemore Chair of National Security Applications Principal Operations Research Analyst with CANA Advisors. Former Naval Postgraduate School Military Assistant Professor and Operations Research Program Officer. Graduate of the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School (Topgun) with numerous operational deployments during 20 years of naval service. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1637364243503-S9C1BKSF9Q78BGX7IUHR/BrianPutt.jpg About Us Volunteers - Brian Putt Chair of Applications and Technical Support Consulting Decision Analyst. 41 years at Chevron (retired). Developed DA Practice and conducted probabilistic analysis of capital investment. Video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187813388-K85COT8IL4T111XJ4SXK/MR.jpg About Us Volunteers - Matthew Raphaelson Chair of Financial Applications Retail banking executive for 25 years. Treasurer for San Francisco Conservatory of Music, and former board member for BAI, a banking industry association. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1637364214445-HAUPAMT04GW3PYJRDNYU/SteveRoemerman.jpg About Us Volunteers - Steve Roemerman Chair of Best Modeling Practice Chairman and CEO of Lone Star Analysis, Inc. Video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1632779305099-KV102JVKM6KVPR0EF9ON/image-asset.jpeg About Us Volunteers - Justin Schell Chair of Healthcare Applications Director of Decision and Capital Analysis & Risk “Mad Scientist” at Highmark Health. Over 25 years of experience in risk management, decision support, and finance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187817693-IY5SPMGUNU4CEOSKEUEH/KennanScott.jpg About Us Volunteers - Kennan Scott Chair of Secondary Education West Oakland Middle School teacher with a background in Civil Engineering and Transportation Management. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1563471212392-H7ZYZ23CYFZHPSHGONQC/Keith+Shepherd+photo.png About Us Volunteers - Keith Shepherd Chair of Agricultural Applications Principal Scientist at World Agroforestry (ICRAF) and Advisor to Innovative Solutions for Decision Agriculture (iSDA) with 40 years’ experience in tropical land management. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1676399312046-NX75UUD2PXU1DXNZJS82/image-asset.jpeg About Us Volunteers - Alex Sidorenko Chair of Insurance Applications Experienced executive across investment, operational risks and insurance. Founder of Risk Academy and Risk Awareness Week. European Risk Manager of the Year in 2021. Co-author of Guide to Effective Risk Management 3.0. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/about-us-our-team daily 0.75 2026-01-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1767635737355-E9ERPXWBQY5C8MCLJPN0/Karen+Guittieri+photo+Jan+2026.jpeg About Us Our Team - Karen Guttieri, Associate Director Dr. Karen Guttieri is a scholar–practitioner specializing in national security, focused on how organizations exercise strategic judgment when interpreting disruption and uncertainty in complex sociotechnical systems, including in recent work on cyber resilience and power projection. She brings experience across defense education and research institutions including the Army Cyber Institute at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Air University, and the Naval Postgraduate School. Her roles have included research leadership, curriculum development, faculty leadership, and cross-sector collaboration at the intersection of technology, security, and policy. Her work frequently involves translating complex technical, socio-cultural, and behavioral insights for senior leaders and interdisciplinary teams, helping clarify assumptions and support shared understanding in uncertain strategic contexts. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia and is affiliated with Janos LLC and Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1767635737355-E9ERPXWBQY5C8MCLJPN0/Karen+Guittieri+photo+Jan+2026.jpeg About Us Our Team - Karen Guttieri, Associate Director Dr. Karen Guttieri is a scholar–practitioner specializing in national security, focused on how organizations exercise strategic judgment when interpreting disruption and uncertainty in complex sociotechnical systems, including in recent work on cyber resilience and power projection. She brings experience across defense education and research institutions including the Army Cyber Institute at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Air University, and the Naval Postgraduate School. Her roles have included research leadership, curriculum development, faculty leadership, and cross-sector collaboration at the intersection of technology, security, and policy. Her work frequently involves translating complex technical, socio-cultural, and behavioral insights for senior leaders and interdisciplinary teams, helping clarify assumptions and support shared understanding in uncertain strategic contexts. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia and is affiliated with Janos LLC and Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1767635547129-05XH8I2C1MWB9NML4GAD/Matthew+Raphaelson+photo+Jan+2026.jpg About Us Our Team - Matthew Raphaelson, Technical Director For 25 years Matthew was the CFO for a large financial services business unit where with broad experience in finance, data science and risk management. He is currently advising the California Public Utilities Commission on upgrading its Risk Decision Framework by tying together the concepts of risk management, financial discipline, and chance-informed decisions. He has been involved with Probabilitymanagement.org since its inception over 10 years ago and is the director of financial applications. He holds a BA from the University of Michigan and MBA from Stanford University. Matthew has been helping CPUC (or SPD, or RASA?) advance the Risk-Decision Framework (RDF) by tying together the concepts of risk management, financial discipline, and chance-informed decisions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187727016-AL87NA7IG18STABFOMI5/june.jpg About Us Our Team - June Klein, Chief Financial Officer June has over twenty years as a senior financial executive in high tech and higher education (non-profit). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187750443-R0AQYG3CJGXLHLIZ1J3R/dave2.jpg About Us Our Team - Dave Empey, Director of Software Development Dave has more than twenty years of experience in Monte Carlo simulation. Helped develop the SIPmath Tools. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1515187763662-SZ4OJ0QRNTYJ94NZLDM5/MaryClaire-cropped.jpg About Us Our Team - Mary Claire Meijer, Executive Assistant Supports the Executive Director and other team members. Multiple years of experience directing large volunteer staff. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1767637022642-5168N84A4DNVTHFN9JEQ/Matthew+Raphaelson+photo+Jan+2026.jpg About Us Our Team - Aaron Brown Data Analyst Private analytical consultant with a background in economics; supports our team with programming, analytics, and education. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1560308309659-69HDHYQXWY8X4B52JKH1/Bridget.png About Us Our Team - Bridget Cash Collaborative Pandemic Modeling Specializes in non-profit leadership, community outreach, stakeholder facilitation, and strategic communications. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1593744465038-SMP7XWCQMROV49XRQS39/melissa.jpg About Us Our Team - Melissa Kirmse Director of Operations Twenty years of experience in project coordination, administration, and technical writing at tech companies including Microsoft and TiVo. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1525123404625-LSJOQJD4CCLM4IV5E9B9/Tom.jpg About Us Our Team - Tom Keelin Chief Research Scientist Founder and Managing Partner at Keelin Reeds Partners; former Worldwide Managing Director, Strategic Decision Group; Co-founder Decision Education Foundation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1539816195764-2GTDRKFQSYVLQB54X3LP/Shaun+Doheney+%28professional%29.jpg About Us Our Team - Shaun Doheney Assistant Director of Training and Certification Senior Data and Analytics Strategy Advisor for Amazon Web Services (AWS); Senior Operations Research Analyst; Data Scientist; and Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel (Retired). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1585587627337-URHV8HZ11307N4FTOUSY/Eng-Wee+Ethan+Yeo.png About Us Our Team - Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo Assistant Director of Technology and Standards Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1612567572096-DDUQJCVMCB89Y4GGKFNF/image-asset.jpeg About Us Our Team - Daniel O'Neil Software Architect Background in economics, technology, and meeting management. Skilled in standards, startups, and problem solving. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/latest-publications daily 0.75 2022-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645665150319-DAO2ZKKKKBLEXLF1CTQ9/Chancification_square.jpg Latest Publications - Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages Book by Sam Savage describing how to fix the Flaw of Averages through Chancification, a revolutionary approach for making chance-informed decisions. January 2022 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645665150319-DAO2ZKKKKBLEXLF1CTQ9/Chancification_square.jpg Latest Publications - Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages Book by Sam Savage describing how to fix the Flaw of Averages through Chancification, a revolutionary approach for making chance-informed decisions. January 2022 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1621875819476-OP7YGO651ITCF1EP8F8J/image-asset.png Latest Publications - Moving Toward a Holistic, Rigorous, Analytical Readiness Framework Article by Connor S. McLemore, Shaun Doheney, Philip Fahringer, and Dr. Sam Savage. Center for International Maritime Security, May 24, 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620864051347-PIGFUQ9JJ9402054M9R7/ORMS.png Latest Publications - Chancification: Wiring Your Organization for Probability Article by Sam Savage with sidebars by Shayne Kavanagh and Aaron Brown, ORMS Today, Vol. 28, No. 3 (June 2021). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1616541312829-222C41CJHN8QYOHQJIJ6/image-asset.jpeg Latest Publications - Military Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?” Article by Connor McLemore and Sam Savage in Vol. 26, #1 of the MOR Journal (March 2021) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1595633997792-YUNIHSJ7B96LC3BAXAXA/Aviva+Investors.jpg Latest Publications - The Probability Specialist: Sam Savage Dr. Savage is interviewed for AIQ: The Risk Edition. (July 2020) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1595286517766-HCHPEUD3LQ9G9S5EXWIW/Cana%2BConnection%2BPodcast.jpg Latest Publications - Operational Readiness Rollup Podcast Podcast with Connor McLemore about his Walker Award-winning paper coauthored with Shaun Doheney and Sam Savage. (July 2020) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1590710247234-YC74179DKTXUYA3334M3/GFOA_logo.svg.jpg Latest Publications - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Podcast recorded with Shayne Kavanagh of GFOA for their Fiscal First Aid Resource Center (May 2020) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1590098825815-DVJEV4R79TM1E5XESN1O/WSC2019_Logo_web.jpg Latest Publications - Risk Analysis Track - Winter Simulation Conference 2019 Multiple papers by Lonnie Chrisman, Doug Hubbard, Tom Keelin, Mike Lepech, track co-chair Sam Savage, and Melissa Zirps https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1590097395358-AB4SJ0JIQO7ROQI1EGNY/Phalanx-Volume-52-No-4.png Latest Publications - Calculating Carrier Air Wing Readiness: An Additive Approach by Shaun Doheney, Connor McLemore, and Sam Savage. Phalanx, December 2019 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1590097785422-J8FK4V24USH8P8O4NH7B/PSD_article.png Latest Publications - Curing the Flaw of Averages in Climate Change by Dr. Sam Savage. Public Sector Digest, September 2019 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chance-informed-summit-speakers daily 0.75 2022-03-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645673429186-8OBU4IF9MOZQKF8J5LZE/Alderson_Jan2015.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - David Alderson Professor, Operations Research Department and Founding Director, Center for Infrastructure Defense at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Dr. Alderson has been the Principal Investigator of sponsored research projects for the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. He has held research positions at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the University of California Los Angeles, the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), and the Santa Fe Institute. Dr. Alderson received his doctorate from Stanford University and his undergraduate degree from Princeton University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645673429186-8OBU4IF9MOZQKF8J5LZE/Alderson_Jan2015.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - David Alderson Professor, Operations Research Department and Founding Director, Center for Infrastructure Defense at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Dr. Alderson has been the Principal Investigator of sponsored research projects for the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. He has held research positions at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the University of California Los Angeles, the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), and the Santa Fe Institute. Dr. Alderson received his doctorate from Stanford University and his undergraduate degree from Princeton University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671516408-EXBZCVF2N1SYFQ6BC6C9/PhilF.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Philip Fahringer Strategic Modeling Fellow, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Philip Fahringer serves as both an internal and external expert consultant providing strategic level decision support to senior business and government leaders to maximize revenue and performance, while assessing risk and controlling budgets. He applies the skills and disciplines of Process Mapping and Analysis, Discrete Event Simulation, Continuous Process Improvement, Monte Carlo Simulation, Portfolio Analysis, Optimization, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and Interactive Decision Support Applications to develop and then communicate insights. He holds master’s degrees in operations research and strategic planning and is retired from the US Navy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645673647562-6NVNIRX7ZYM57MFED7P5/Daniel-Fylstra.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Daniel Fylstra President and Owner, Frontline Systems Dan Fylstra is a pioneer of the software products industry. He was a founding associate editor of Byte magazine and developer of VisiCalc, the first-ever computer spreadsheet. He is the former president of Sierra Sciences. Dan received a Bachelor of Science degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an MBA from Harvard Business School. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645725037500-GYL8DR235G5QXUFPQXL1/Henrion_Photo_200_200.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Max Henrion CEO and Founder, Lumina Decision Systems Max Henrion, PhD is the founder and CEO of Lumina Decision Systems. He was lead designer of Analytica, about which PC Week said "All the problems of the common spreadsheet are fixed in Analytica”. He is adjunct Professor at Carnegie Mellon, where he used to teach full-time. He was founding President of the Association of Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence. He coauthored “Uncertainty” (Cambridge Univ Press), three other books, and over 70 refereed articles. He has a BA from Cambridge University and PhD from Carnegie Mellon. He received the 2018 Frank Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645743025207-QKRU4A0JH9NM23BYUUBK/Douglas_Hubbard_.png Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Douglas W. Hubbard Founder, Hubbard Decision Research Mr. Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and author of one of the best-selling business statistics books of all time, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. He is also the author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities, and co-author of How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk. Mr. Hubbard’s consulting experience and financial analysis totals over 27 years and spans many industries including pharmaceuticals, insurance, banking, utilities, cyber security, interventions in developing economies, mining, federal and state government, entertainment media, military logistics, and manufacturing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645673756014-D4R2G6VSMUB6W1LDGGZ3/Shayne_Kavanagh_cropped.png Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Shayne Kavanagh Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) Shayne is a leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning and policies for local government. He started GFOA's long-term financial planning and policy consulting offering in 2002 and has been working with governments on financial planning and policies ever since. Shayne's financial planning experience also drives his research at GFOA and he is the author of a number of influential publications on financial planning. He received his MPA degree from Northern Illinois University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671447328-FI35NJ3I1FAA5C4XOJJA/Tom_Keelin_.png Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Tom Keelin Managing Partner, Keelin Reeds Partners Tom Keelin, inventor of the Metalog distribution, has combined a career in decision analysis practice with innovations to advance the field. Using decision analysis, modeling, and probabilistic simulation, he has developed asset valuation, portfolio management, and business development deal terms methodologies that have enabled greater success for dozens of client companies. Tom is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and a founder and director of the Decision Education Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that helps youth learn good decision skills for life. Tom holds three degrees from Stanford University: BA in Economics and MS and PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671465965-FJKV79SK6HN250A4ZVLB/Connor+McLemore.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Connor McLemore Principal Operations Research Analyst, CANA Advisors Connor has over 12 years of experience in scoping, performing, and implementing analytic solutions. He is a published author on artificial intelligence and machine learning in peer-reviewed scientific journals and national security platforms. He is a former Naval Postgraduate School Military Assistant Professor and Operations Research Program Officer, former naval officer and graduate of the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School (Topgun) with numerous operational deployments during 20 years of service. Previously Connor was with the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Assessment Division (OPNAV N81) in Washington D.C. He holds Master’s degrees from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645673852476-6HFJ4N9NRZ3X7XTRX0Y6/Steve_Roemerman_.png Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Steven Roemerman CEO, Lone Star Analysis Steven has served on the boards of a number of corporations, authored dozens of papers on technology and management, and he holds patents in the defense, telecommunications and energy sectors. Much of his work deals with large, complex systems, whether human institutions, computer systems, networks, or systems of systems. He holds a degree in Applied Mathematics with post graduate studies in mathematics, business, telecommunications and signal processing. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE, a Life Member of the NDIA, and a member of the SPE. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671428633-BOAR9IJIWGJ38JENAVHT/SS-headshot.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Sam L. Savage Executive Director, Probability Management.org Dr. Savage led the development of the open SIPmath Standard for storing probability distributions as auditable data and founded ProbabilityManagement.org, a nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. He is author of three books, Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and Decision Making with Insight, as well as numerous articles. He is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671607818-8B6PBY33IVJGDW9VI8C2/Justin%2BSchell%2B-%2BHead%2BShot%2B2.jpg Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Justin Schell Sr. Risk Management Consultant & Risk “Mad Scientist,” Highmark Health Justin has over 15 years of risk management experience with a strong focus in healthcare. He is currently working to help the enterprise make decisions in the face of uncertainty through a risk management program that focuses on risk quantification & optimization strategies, rather than traditional tactical risk & control. His work includes bringing quantification of risk exposures into business decisions in areas such as vendor contracting and insurance purchasing. Additionally, he works with business leaders to develop measures and limits to manage the levels of risk within the enterprise. His core belief is that organizations face a growing challenge of “risk gridlock” due to competing perspectives and a lack of quantitative insight into uncertainty and risk. The result is a fear of uncertainty and a fear to make bold moves to achieve strategic goals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1645671568003-LYVX4U6UVIRZGPBOMSYN/Eng-Wee+Ethan+Yeo.png Chance-Informed Summit Speakers - Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology, Kaiser Permanente Eng-Wee is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making. He has over 20 years of experience in Information Security. 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https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619038789110-RGU809AE2A6JFLVVHTH4/HDR.png HDR https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617749971784-EPQXSYQZR2Y850GKQILZ/HDRPaper.png HDR A Multi-Dimensional, Counter-Based Pseudo Random Number Generator as a Standard for Monte Carlo Simulations by Doug Hubbard. Published in Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, December 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617837619985-2OGTYFT1DMGQP4KWMRP7/HDRSlides.png HDR https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1626459927324-PBFODIV9VCBSPW04LSIR/HDR+iteration+counter.png HDR - Make it stand out This figure shows the positions in the formula of the Monte Carlo iteration counter https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/20-standard daily 0.75 2025-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617743249522-ADKE4C9DPH3YO8BDZX2X/SIPmath+Standard.png 2.0 Standard https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617744877643-E1ZIKZ9ODXDI85B8V208/DiceCalc.gif 2.0 Standard https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2e0b33f2-3310-4e45-971c-5452c0c14739/Efron+Dice.gif 2.0 Standard - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619038575987-Y19U3RQ3KZFERHKMSVBU/2.0+Excel.png 2.0 Standard https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/metalog daily 0.75 2024-05-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619026311825-CR5I84A3ZD58DNE604NC/Metalogs.png Metalog https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619026111906-DAC4FJ6PBTBKAQ9YHVR6/330px-Wikipedia-logo-v2.svg.png Metalog https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617987283242-XWI9QBOD4MHB8C2F5SWD/MetalogPaper.png Metalog https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1617988521892-KKXY90HQ3E90RKTCAYMS/Metalog1.png Metalog https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619026194429-RCHO6F4SQIOBY9Z1SLKY/Trout.gif Metalog https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1632244610908-T9MXT55PO2NKE8GRZI0N/8_sec_rotation_Cropped.gif Metalog - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-download daily 0.75 2021-09-15 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancification daily 0.75 2024-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/3835da11-d91b-4740-94b4-008b1c27dd95/Chancification_cropped_border.jpg Chancification - Make it stand out Purchase Dr. Savage’s 2022 book on Chancification here and get 30% off the companion book, The Flaw of Averages https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620235598134-JXWUVU2RHF8OWJWSY1N9/ChanceofWhatever_Button_.png Chancification https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619629831086-2U2V1RQ3JTAISQPM137O/Chancification.png Chancification https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620425263776-5E7JZTRNQV22P9L3VU18/SIPmath+Standard+reversed.png Chancification https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619630442607-KJHRVVMDKGTC6VMU3VTC/HDR.png Chancification https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619630495117-544K3DOIP685G8HFEPWP/Metalogs.png Chancification https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-tutorial-files daily 0.75 2022-08-25 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/canonical-libraries daily 0.75 2021-10-19 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/schema daily 0.75 2021-10-07 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/tutorial-libraries daily 0.75 2022-08-25 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/mors-tutorial-files daily 0.75 2021-12-03 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/contact daily 0.75 2022-01-25 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/summit daily 0.75 2022-04-04 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-old daily 0.75 2022-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/68b263cc-8e8a-438b-9995-5c61efce5a64/ChanceCalcRibbon_022222.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1619807929782-81G00VWG4STPGK1JRLZW/ChanceCalc.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620679337190-P7I3QMWM8M1IWHIN7IVR/SIPmath+Tools2.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620068520674-7YONG3JR9DT46D7UF630/Rlogo.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620074386348-6ZI67CRXHZBEWIU1SNHG/Python.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620677303898-AJHAV5MSFC4Q9LMAW8MJ/FrontlineSolvers-logo-stacked.jpg ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620074549627-C7EU2AXXF8JHA45SKLA1/Analytica.jpg ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620074739379-L2DTMNZNU7UGOMI3KKX5/Autobox.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620074840766-SX6TWFW3PCLPFN33SX7V/CrystalBall.png ChanceCalc - Old https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1620075042644-4OWUMX3SYH6RIU0Q0FG9/AtRisk.png ChanceCalc - Old https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/readiness-summit daily 0.75 2022-03-17 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/nps-course daily 0.75 2022-03-29 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/libraries-1 daily 0.75 2022-05-02 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-13-beta daily 0.75 2022-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1659393720374-NOIN3MNX1NII00QB8SI0/MetalogInterface.png ChanceCalc 1.3 Beta - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-13-beta-license daily 0.75 2022-08-08 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-13-beta-copy daily 0.75 2022-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1659393720374-NOIN3MNX1NII00QB8SI0/MetalogInterface.png ChanceCalc 1.3 Beta (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/rse-spend-webinar daily 0.75 2022-08-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/8e969141-cec7-4517-af59-12f023d40c97/unnamed.jpg RSE Spend Webinar - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog-archive daily 0.75 2022-09-07 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancetalk daily 0.75 2022-09-13 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/live-stream daily 0.75 2022-09-26 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/give-chance daily 0.75 2025-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/23b5f974-f36f-4ae6-a538-16e6c008f5ed/Quotes+5.gif Give Chance Webinar - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bbf911ea-9450-41c3-8c65-4901b731f0b8/drowningstatistian_chancewebinar.png Give Chance Webinar - Make it stand out The Flaw of Averages states that plans based on Averages are wrong on Average. The Poster Child for this problem is the statistician who drowns in the river that is on average 3 ft. deep. However, many insidious variants of this set of systematic errors permeate business and government. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/probability-power-grid daily 0.75 2026-01-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/23b5f974-f36f-4ae6-a538-16e6c008f5ed/Quotes+5.gif Probability Power Grid Webinar - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/eaec5264-0b62-4a9e-95f4-fdca41ae1e44/powergrid_chancewebinar.png Probability Power Grid Webinar - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancification-webinars daily 0.75 2023-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7fa1f1f8-3ad2-4615-9cf0-69964ce4a0a0/ChanceAge.gif Chancification Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4ecb7f11-254e-4c17-a84d-daf5fb3b5254/sam_webinar.png Chancification Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e9d49889-7e1b-4aa5-990e-be2088efa975/Screen+Shot+2023-06-30+at+2.19.46+PM.png Chancification Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/virtual-2023-pm-summit daily 0.75 2023-10-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/6f29c71e-65bc-4a32-9632-7a4c4a5efabd/2023+PM+Summit+Contributors.png Virtual 2023 PM Summit - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/gfoa-pm-webinars daily 0.75 2025-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/254f812f-2ce8-4f7f-aac1-ab41209e94eb/pmlogo_GFOA%3APM_Webinar.png GFOA-PM Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/64af0a60-83cc-481e-8907-4fe89923cc81/GFOA+logo_PMGFOA_webinar.png GFOA-PM Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bbf911ea-9450-41c3-8c65-4901b731f0b8/drowningstatistian_chancewebinar.png GFOA-PM Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/renewable-energy daily 0.75 2024-04-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/12a7c724-89c7-49be-aba5-fe35c4522841/renewable+%233.jpg Renewable Energy - Make it stand out Dan Krashin discusses battery storage. Watch video https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/88db40d1-e763-4161-a65f-aa902e07e401/Daniel+for+website.png Renewable Energy - Make it stand out Daniel Krashin, Chair of Renewable Energy Applications https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/natural-hazards daily 0.75 2024-09-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/fab6dfe7-f591-4311-bdd5-ddd65b4d1c2c/CHANCES+Page+Header2.png Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/071d24a7-da59-4d78-8860-a113ee7175cf/Town+A+and+B+GIF2.1.gif Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/620ecb57-574b-45d6-9ce2-fb1ab93eb73c/Berkeley+ChancePlanGIF+2.gif Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/b760f593-04c0-4c1b-ac0a-844584201f29/Undergrounding+Lines.png Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/cc868e62-62f2-450c-9c8b-69c383f2bbbf/Reservoirs.png Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/24956d0b-1b51-498b-9625-778ca17379d8/Fire+Model+GIF.gif Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Fire-Impact-Reserve-Estimator.xlxs https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1590097785422-J8FK4V24USH8P8O4NH7B/PSD_article.png Natural Hazards - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1569951083163-JLCSWENXPRJ51CBX0EZW/SIPmath+Flood+3.gif Natural Hazards - Make it stand out SIPmath Flood Model.xlsx https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/excel-tools daily 0.75 2025-05-13 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc daily 0.75 2025-07-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/1b2a674b-919e-4ec0-83ea-edba09e5c950/ChanceCalc+Page+Top+Image+5.png ChanceCalc - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/7015219d-e4fa-4201-a0c6-ba6329672329/ChanceCalc+Birdhouse.png ChanceCalc - Make it stand out Other simulation tools require you to own the tool to run the model. When you build a model with ChanceCalc, you may share it with a billion of your closest friends as a macro free XLSX file. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/gateway-to-ai daily 0.75 2025-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/71cd6ba9-ea34-4170-bc29-0cff07e915b0/Part+2+FOA+%289%29.png Gateway to AI - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/donate-2024 daily 0.75 2024-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/a4331816-e2af-43df-a072-23108d7be9e4/Sam_Headshot_2024.jpg Donate - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/troubleshooting-excel daily 0.75 2025-07-03 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/sipcalc daily 0.75 2025-07-23 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/copula-layer daily 0.75 2026-01-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/3ec46c22-78a8-4fd0-ae71-43d7e2204c88/Continuous+and+Discrete+Copula.png Copula Layer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4da7143e-3042-4bd5-900c-db262f6e0f36/Copula1.png Copula Layer - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/aa75ee39-d386-43f1-a45f-d26b45f7ed9b/copula+page+2.png Copula Layer - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/3a346f65-8d63-4688-bda8-aae4cc0a54c9/copula+page+3.jpg Copula Layer - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/a8c41e81-a02e-4087-816c-67c541031281/copula+page+6.png Copula Layer - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/2c1a307a-6041-497c-8564-64ce3190bbaa/Copula+5.png Copula Layer - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/give-chance-2026 daily 0.75 2026-03-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/bbf911ea-9450-41c3-8c65-4901b731f0b8/drowningstatistian_chancewebinar.png Give Chance Webinar (Jan 2026) - Make it stand out The Flaw of Averages states that plans based on Averages are wrong on Average. The Poster Child for this problem is the statistician who drowns in the river that is on average 3 ft. deep. However, many insidious variants of this set of systematic errors permeate business and government. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/ada085a6-1de2-4bd3-bd43-d73eae691d9b/ChanceOmeter+white.gif Give Chance Webinar (Jan 2026) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/probability-power-grid-2026 daily 0.75 2026-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/eaec5264-0b62-4a9e-95f4-fdca41ae1e44/powergrid_chancewebinar.png Probability Power Grid Webinar (Jan 2026) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/the-language-of-chance-2026 daily 0.75 2026-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/17892675-c8aa-4993-9a12-9bb33eb75af1/Stochastic+Data+Cycle.png The Language of Chance: AI's Native Tongue Webinar (Jan 2026) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/webinars daily 0.75 2026-03-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/23b5f974-f36f-4ae6-a538-16e6c008f5ed/Quotes+5.gif Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/ed11d80b-b7fb-4704-8831-7a69373af54f/Software+Wide+GIF.gif Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/4ecb7f11-254e-4c17-a84d-daf5fb3b5254/sam_webinar.png Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a4f82d7a8b2b04080732f87/e9d49889-7e1b-4aa5-990e-be2088efa975/Screen+Shot+2023-06-30+at+2.19.46+PM.png Webinars - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-1 daily 0.75 2022-02-28 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-1/chancecalc-mac-gz96a monthly 0.5 2024-05-17 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-1/chancecalc-windows-f93tn-xh884 monthly 0.5 2024-07-16 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-1/chancecalc-windows-f93tn-xh884-be9za monthly 0.5 2024-05-17 https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancecalc-1/chancecalc-windows-f93tn monthly 0.5 2024-05-17