Probability Management: A Cure for the Flaw of Averages

Free Lecture and Networking Reception
Sam L. Savage & Matthew Raphaelson

Thursday, February 21, 2019
San Francisco, CA
6:00 pm - 8:00 pm

The free SIPmath™ Tools provide a new platform for managing uncertainty in finance, marketing, operations, risk management, IT, talent management, and more.  The tools can be used by anyone with basic Excel skills to create native Excel files that run thousands of scenarios per keystroke without macros or add-ins.


  • Why everything is behind schedule, beyond budget and below projection

  • Limbic Analytics: Connecting the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants

  • The Open SIPmath™ Standard that lets you communicate and calculate uncertainty in native Excel

  • How to manage sandbagged budgets

About the Flaw of Averages

Sam L. Savage coined the term The Flaw of Averages for the set of systematic errors that occur when single “average” numbers are substituted for uncertainties. It states that plans based on Average Assumptions are Wrong on Average.

In 2013 Dr. Savage incorporated as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit to cure the Flaw of Averages through education, standards, and best practices.  It has received support from Chevron, General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Loring Ward, PG&E, Wells Fargo Bank, and others. Dr. Savage is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics.

Good Flaw of Averages.png


6:00 - Doors open
6:30 - Lecture
7:15 - Networking reception with light snacks


PG&E Conference Center 
245 Market St.
San Francisco, CA 94105

A PG&E representative will meet you in the lobby and escort you to the event. Onsite parking is not available, but there are many public parking garages nearby.

For security purposes, all attendees must register 48 hours prior to the event. Attendees will receive a $100 discount on registration to our Annual Conference on March 26-27, 2019 and $100 off the Enterprise Tools for Windows. 


Sam Savage is Executive Director of, author of The Flaw of Averages, and Adjunct Professor at Stanford University School of Engineering. 

Matthew Raphaelson is Chair of Banking Applications at and is a consultant with 25 years of executive experience in retail banking.