Climate Change
Aggregating hazard risk with the Open SIPmath™ Standard
Shayne Kavanagh and Sam Savage demonstrate aggregating hazard risk with the Open SIPmath™ Standard.
Fire Impact Reserve Estimator
by Shayne Kavanagh
The model, developed by Shayne Kavanagh of the Government Finance Officers Association estimates the chance of depleting a municipality's reserve over a ten year period. When you make a change to a green assumption cell, 10,000 trials are run for each of ten years for a total of 100,000 calculations using the Excel Data Table.
The data, provided by John Jacobi of AON came from a complex simulation built and compiled on large, distributed computer networks on which event generation can take many days to run.
The Open SIPmath™ Standard from 501(c)(3) nonprofit Probability Management.org conveys uncertainty as arrays of auditable data called SIPs, which obey the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. It is compatible with virtually any computer platform.
Curing the Flaw of Averages in Climate Change
by Dr. Sam Savage
This article investigates how simulation can help predict and prepare for flooding and other damage caused by climate change. PSD Citywide, September 2019.
SIPmath Flood Model
This model demonstrates that the average damage from flooding is greater than the damage associated with the average crest.
