ProbabilityManagement.Org Members
ProbabilityManagement.Org is a collaboration between researchers, managers,
software vendors, and consultants interested in the management and communication
of risk.
Academic Affiliates
Industrial Affiliates
- Robert Ameo, Market
Modelers, LLC
- Bryan Baker, Shell International E&P
B.V.
- David Cawlfield, Olin Corporation
- Dan Fylstra, Frontline Systems
- Douglas Hubbard, Hubbard
Decision Research
- Darren Johnson, Genentech, Inc.
- Paul Kaplan, Morningstar
- Alan King, IBM Corp.
- Michael Kubica, Applied Quantitative
Sciences, Inc.
- Rick Medress, Cineval,
LLC
- Andy Parker, Lazard Wealth Management
- Jeff Perkinson, SAS Institute
- Mark Rubino, Wells Fargo Bank
- Sanjay Saigal, Intechné
- Rob Suggs, Vanguard Software
- Marc van Allen, Jenner & Block, LLP
- Eric Wainwright, Oracle Corp.
- Daniel Zweidler, Merck & Co., Inc.
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Modularity:
Typical information management in business entails consolidating numbers
across divisions and rolling them up from one level of management to the
next. However, when uncertain numbers are added, the distribution of their
sum is not the sum of their distributions. That is, distributions are not
additive. The recently developed DIST™ (Distribution String) data
type encapsulates thousands of Monte Carlo trials in a single element in
a spreadsheet or data base. Properly generated DISTs are additive; in fact
they obey the same algebra as numbers. This modularity property allows risk
models to be consolidated across organizational silos in the same manner
as deterministic models. A DIST certified to meet the DIST 1.0 standard
may display the certification mark on the left.
Visualization:
Probability distributions must be visualized if they are to be of use in
managerial decisions. The extensive use of graphics, preferably driven by
interactive simulation is key to validating input distributions and interpreting
results. 
Certification:
The number of managers dealing with uncertainty far exceeds the number
who are competent to estimate probability distributions. The Chief Probability
Officer (CPO) is a notional role within an organization with the knowledge
and authority to generate probability distributions for use by other managers
in the enterprise. A distribution so generated is said to be certified,
and may bear the certification mark shown here.