ProbabilityManagement.org

Learn more about the DIST™ standard.

Membership list and signup form.

Read recent publications and press releases.

Test interative models.

List of software supporting the DIST™ standard as of December 2009.

Welcome to ProbabilityManagement.org
a standards setting organization devoted to establishing

A New Calculus for Uncertainty and Risk

Two recent technologies, Interactive Simulation and Distribution Strings, make probabilistic models Auditable, Coherent, and Transparent.

A Probabilistic models have traditionally been difficult to Audit. The DIST™ Distribution String encapsulates thousands of Monte Carlo trials into a single XML string, which may be maintained in a spreadsheet or data base, and audited according to current business practices.

C Most representations of uncertain quantities cannot be easily added together. DISTs allow Coherent sub-models to be aggregated directly into enterprise or industry wide models that recognize and consolidate systemic risk.

T Probabilistic models are difficult to interpret. Transparent results can be achieved through intuitive graphical interfaces driven by interactive simulation.

News

Seminar Offers a Cure for the Flaw of Averages
A one day seminar that will change the way you manage risk and return is being presented by Dr. Sam Savage. Seminars are being offered in New York, San Francisco, Chicago and London. See 21stCenturyRisk.com for more information.

Toward a Consolidated Risk Statement
Toward a Consolidated Risk Statement, an article by Sam Savage and Aaron Brown, appears in the December 2009 issue of Risk Professional magazine. (Subscribers to the magazine may view it at their site.) It describes the potential of the DIST format to enable the aggregation of risk reports across an organization. A companion Excel model is now available on the Interactive Modeling page of this site.

The Flaw of Averages
The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, by Dr. Sam Savage, has recently been published by John Wiley and Sons and is available at amazon.com. It describes the basic principles of Probability Management, and the origin of the DIST data type. Examples from the book and other related materials can be found at flawofaverages.com.

DIST™ Standard • Membership • Press and Publications • Interactive Models • Software •