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ProbabilityManagement.org
Illuminating Uncertainty
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Standards for best practices.
Membership and organization list.
Read recent publications and press releases.
Test interative models.
Member-only Downloads & Content.
SIPmath™ explained.
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ProbabilityManagement.org was founded in 2006 to change the way we communicate and manage uncertainty and risk, based on principles put forth by Sam Savage, Stefan Scholtes, and Daniel Zweidler in OR/MS Today. Download their seminal paper as a PDF here, or view it online here.
We promote a coherent, collaborative and intuitive approach to curing the Flaw of Averages by representing uncertainties as data, arrays of thousands of potential outcomes known as SIPs, rather than single best guess numbers.
We accomplish this through educational materials, best practices, and standards. Our most recent initiative is SIP math, which enables interactive calculation with uncertainties just as if they were numbers. Because SIP math can be performed in native Microsoft Excel® without macros or add-ins, it has the potential to impact tens of millions of decision makers.
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Board of Directors
Sam Savage, Executive Director
Author of The Flaw of Averages
Consulting Professor of Management Science & Engineering
Stanford
University
Harry Markowitz
Nobel Laureate in Economics and Professor of Finance
Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego
Michael Salama
Vice President Corporate Tax & Lead Tax Counsel
The Walt Disney Company
"The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies is a keen supporter of the mission of ProbabilityManagement.org."
Professor Daniel Ralph,
Judge Business School, Cambridge University
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NEW from ProbabilityManagement.org
Distribution Processing with SIP Math
See the Nov. 2012 Article in Analytics Magazine:
http://www.analytics-magazine.org/
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For a modest donation you may join us and support these efforts. Members gain access to reserved content in the Members Area, including the SIPmath™ Modeler Tools for Excel, which facilitate the development of SIP math models, but are not required to run them. Probability Management, Inc. has applied for recognition under Internal Revenue Code section 501(c)(3) for non-profit consideration, and donations are currently fully tax deductible. Should the organization be denied public charity status, the deduction as a qualified donation will be lost and the contribution will have to be considered a business expense if eligible.
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